Market reactions and economic sectors to inflation in 2022

This Thursday, the Dane revealed the consolidated figures for 2022 of the annual variation of inflation that stood at 13.12%, the highest since 1999 and well above market projections that it was less than 13%.

(Inflation of 2022, the highest since 1999 but it could have been worse, why?).

After this data, which serves as a reference for various adjustments and increases for 2023 such as the rental price, among others, several experts reacted and expressed their concerns about the high cost of living figure.

One of the first to react was Sergio Olarte, Principal Economist at Scotiabank Colpatria, who stated that this data is not encouraging and warns that the drop in inflation in Colombia by 2023 will be quite slow due to high food prices, data that affects the inflation of demand elements such as restaurants, hotels , travel, among others; sectors that have been very dynamic during this time.

(Inflation of 13.12% puts pressure on the Bank of the Republic).

According to the analyst, what is expected is that the Banco de la República, quite possibly at its meeting in January, will continue raising its interest rates to somehow discourage consumption.

For his part, Laura Peña Cardozo of BBVA Research He said that the high levels of inflation are expected to continue to be transmitted, especially during the first half of 2023, followed by a moderation of the data that could close the year at close to 8%.

By the end of last year, the surprise came mainly from food, which reached an annual variation of 27.8%, accelerating by 72 bps compared to November. Within this, perishable products registered the greatest acceleration, while meats slowed down.

According to the president of the Colombian American Chamber of Commerce, AmCham Colombia, María Claudia Lacouture, inflation above expectations should be called upon to reflect on measures to moderate the cost of living for Colombians, which could have been higher since input costs for production and services were much higher.

He says that these costs were absorbed by the business fabric to avoid being passed on to the consumer price, which prevented an even greater impact.

(Inflation in Colombia closed 2022 at 13.12% in its annual variation).

He points out that it is important to reinforce policies for the generation of formal employment so that families have resources to face the increases derived from the high cost of food, transportation, gasoline and taxes, as well as improve business productivity so that they can offer quality products and services. competitive way both for the national market and for the foreign one that becomes a key factor for the development of the economy.

For him economic studies team of Banco Itaúthe rise in food was “another surprise to the rise in inflation at the end of 2022” since it reached a significant rebound of 2.7%.

According to Itaú, despite the fact that a slowdown in domestic demand was expected, inflation will most likely fall slowly and the year will end above 8%.

“With inflation still at a high, inflation expectations still on the upside, and large twin deficits in the offing, we expect the central bank to continue raising rates this month from the current 12% to 50bp minimum.” added entity.

For his part, for the economic team of Banco de Bogotá, In December, another bad inflation result was recorded, once again highly influenced by food, which again surprised on the rise, but in any case with generalized price pressures.

Likewise, basic inflation did not perform well either, something that was expected, to the extent that high variations were expected in housing and transportation (beyond gasoline).

According to Banco de Bogotá, this scenario will lead Banco de la República to prolong its upward cycle of interest rates.

Faced with inflation in 2022, Bruce MacMaster, president of Andi, stated that the data is still surprising and worrying because “This variable mainly affects the most vulnerable households that maintain their income normally throughout the year, but whose expenses increase over the months.”

The union leader thus highlighted the increase in the minimum wage that is intended to preserve the purchasing power of Colombian families.

Finally, he said that the challenge for this 2023 is to generate employment to maintain people’s income.

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