The financial market increased its inflation forecast for this year for the tenth consecutive time. According to a projection by the Focus Bulletin, released today (21) by the Central Bank, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should close this year at 6.59%. A week ago, the market forecast was that inflation this year would be 6.45%%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was 5.56%.
Published weekly, the Focus Bulletin gathers the projection of around 100 market institutions for the main economic indicators in the country.
For 2023, the market also increased its projection of the IPCA variation. As a result, this week’s projection points to an inflation of 3.75% compared to the 3.71% projected last week. Four weeks ago, the projection was for an inflation of 3.5% next year.
For 2024, the market maintained last week’s estimate that projected inflation of 3.15%.
GDP
In this week’s projection, Focus also raised the GDP forecast recorded seven days ago. The new projection is for a GDP of 0.50% in 2022, compared to the 0.49% forecast last week.
For 2023, however, the Focus bulletin recorded a reduction in the expectation of growth compared to last week, from 1.43% to 1.3%. Four weeks ago, the forecast was that GDP would grow by 1.5%. For 2024, the projection was stable at 2%.
Interest rate and exchange
The market also projected an increase in the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2022. In the projection released this Monday, the Selic rate should remain at 13%, compared to 12.75% per year last week.
Last week, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) raised the Selic ratefrom 10.75% to 11.75% per year to contain the rise in prices.
Towards the end of 2023, the market estimate for the Selic has also increased. The new projection is that the base rate stays at 9% per year, compared to 8.75% per year last week. For 2024, the Selic forecast remained stable compared to last week, at 7.50% per year.
With regard to the exchange rate, the market’s expectation for the dollar rate in 2022 was R$ 5.30, the same as last week.
For next year, the market forecast was for a slight increase in relation to what was projected in the previous week. With that, the projection went from R$ 5.21 to R$ 5.22 this week. For 2024, the estimate for the price of the American currency was R$ 5.20.
