The financial market has increased the projection of inflation and the growth of the economy for this year. According to the Focus Bulletin, released on Monday (10) by the Central Bank, inflation, measured by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), at 5.58%, compared to 5.51% last week.
The bulletin has also brought a new reduction in the projection of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the sum of goods and services produced in the country, to 2025. Now, financial market agents project growth from 2.03% to 2025, compared to 2 , 04% of the previous week.
Focus survey is done with financial market economists and released weekly by the BC. For 2026, Focus shows GDP growth projection of 1.7%. For 2027, the projection is 1.96% and, by 2028, a 2% expansion of the economy.
Regarding inflation, the bulletin projects an index from 4.3% to 2026, compared to 4.28, last week. For 2027, the financial market has the projection of IPCA of 3.9% and, 3.78% in 2028.
Last year, the IPCA, which takes into account the variation of the cost of living of families with yields of up to 40 minimum wages, closed last year at 4.83%, above the ceiling of the goal, which was 4.5% .
Interest rate
Regarding the basic interest rate, Selic, Focus maintained last week’s 15%projection to 2025, the same as the last four weeks. For 2026, the projection of the financial market is that Selic is 12.5%, also the same projected last week. For 2027 and 2028, the projections are that the rate is 10.5% and 10%, respectively.
To reach the inflation target, the Central Bank uses as its main instrument to basic interest rateSelic, defined at 13.25% per year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).
In late January, the board increased to Selic in 1 percentage point, with the justification that the decision is compatible with the inflation convergence strategy around the goal.
Copom pointed out that food prices have raised significantly, according to other factors, the drought observed over the past year and the raising of meat prices, also affected by the ox cycle.
Regarding industrialized goods, the committee pointed out that recent movement of increased dollar presses prices and margins, suggesting a higher increase in such components in the next month, which made the inflationary scenario more adverse, demanding a contractionist economic policy.
Also according to Copom, the most adverse scenario for the convergence of target inflation to 2025, from 3%, with tolerance interval of 1.5% to 4.5% may require increase of 1 percentage point at Selic at the next committee meeting on March 18 and 19.
Exchange
Regarding the exchange rate, the dollar quotation forecast was $ 6.00 to 2025. This Monday the currency quote is $ 5.75. At the end of 2026, the US currency is expected to also be $ 6.00. For 2027, the exchange rate should also be, according to Focus, at $ 5.93 and for 2028, the projection is $ 5.99.
