The inflation data for March will be released tomorrow by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane), and in line with the previous two months, the The market expects prices to continue their climb, reaching 8.45%.
(Inflation, the headache for the Colombian economy).
For the monthly data, the expectations survey of the Banco de la República places the projections on average at 0.9%. 42 market agents participated in the Issuer’s survey, including banks, brokerage firms, corporations, pension and severance funds, and universities, among others. A maximum of 1.48% monthly inflation is expected for March, and a minimum of 0.47%.
On the other hand, the figure of 8.45% for the variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was the consensus reached by the analysts consulted by Fedesarrollo in its latest Financial Opinion Survey (EOF).
(First quarter of 2022, with a bittersweet balance in the figures).
THE PERSPECTIVES
Above this forecast is the expectation of the economic studies center Anif, it is expected that inflation for March will be 0.95% in its monthly data and 8.47% annual. Likewise, from XP Investments the projection for inflation in March is 0.92%, with which annual inflation is close to 8.5%.
In the past week corficolombiana updated its economic projections, and among the values it had in mind for 2022 is that of inflation, which they estimate will close the year at 8.4%. The entity also estimates that inflation will climb to a level of 8.5% in Marchand that the prices of the consumer basket will increase 0.95% for the month.
“We are seeing higher and persistent inflation, in our new projections inflation will not peak in March. We had foreseen that ceiling last year, and to a large extent we expected that, since we were going to compare ourselves with different levels. Now, with the additional shock of the conflict in Ukraine, what we are seeing is that we are not going to reach that ceiling in March, but rather that inflation will remain at high levels until the end of the year, as a result of the input shock generated by the conflict. ”, assured the head of economic investigations of Corficolombiana, José Ignacio López.
During the second semester, Corficolombiana expects inflation to be between 8.5% and 8.9%.
Carolina Monzón, manager of Economic Research at Itaú Colombia, also highlighted how food would continue to drive inflation in March, and a monthly increase of 2.4% is expected for the component and would contribute 44 basis points to monthly inflation. From Itaú, inflation is projected to accelerate to 8.61%.
“Housing would be a key driver of inflation, standing at 0.68% month-on-month, pushed up by rental and utility prices. Hotels and restaurants would also contribute to the monthly increase (1.99%). As for transport, there would be an acceleration to 1.03% month-on-month amid the increase in fuel prices. Lastly, we expect the clothing division to drop 1.02% month-on-month,” said Monzón.
Likewise, at Citi, Esteban Tamayo, chief economist for Colombia, Peru, the Caribbean Region and Central America for the bank, maintains a forecast of 0.84% for the month and 8.36% for the annual figure. “I think that in March we will see the highest annual inflation of the year, the highest monthly inflations occurred in January and February,” Tamayo said at an event.
The economist assured that he expects inflation “to stay above 8% for another two months, above 7% until August, and that a correction will take place in the second half of the year”, linked to a drop in prices. of the oil.
For Banco de Bogotá, the expectation for the monthly data is 0.90%, and an annual forecast of 8.4%. “In general, the projection models suggest that the month of March will probably see the highest inflation of the year. The monitoring of prices that we have been doing indicates that food continues to rise even more than we imagined, and more than usual for this time of year, that 0.90% has a slight upward bias, “said the director of economic investigations of the bank, Camilo Pérez.
Bancolombia has a forecast for inflation of 0.82% for the month, with which the annual figure would stand at 8.34%.
LAURA LUCIA BECERRA ELEJALDE
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