The increase in prices continues to be one of the biggest concerns, and the market expects the June Inflation, whose data will be disclosed by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) shows a new increase, which would be around 0.51% per month and would bring the annual figure closer to 9.7%.
(Banco de la República went on the offensive regarding rates).
This, according to the experts, would be explained by the dynamics of the food item and also some servicesbut it could have an opposite effect due to the day without VAT and the discounts that the tax holiday brought.
According to the Banco de la República survey of expectations, which collects the opinions of 44 entities, monthly inflation in June is expected to present a variation of 0.51%, with a minimum of 0.23% and a maximum of 0. 85%. On the other hand, the analysts consulted by Fedesarrollo in the last Financial Opinion Survey (EOF) indicated that for June they consider that inflation will average 9.56% in their annual data.
(‘Top’: highest prices that the dollar has had in Colombia).
For Andrés Pardo Amezquita, chief strategist for Latin America at XP Investments, “the day without VAT will help lower some products in the monthly data”, but food will continue to push up the annual data.
“Apart from those, what is also moving and could drive the variation are services, rentals, food outside the home and services related to tourism. Also prices of vehicles and personal hygiene products and for the home, “said Pardo. Since the signing, a monthly variation of the IPC is expected to be 0.53%, with which inflation will be at 9.7%.
Other forecasts are higher, such as that of Scotiabank Colpatria. “We are expecting a monthly inflation point of 0.71%, this would lead us to increase the 12-month inflation rate, from the current 9.07% to 9.89% and we find mixed forces for the data”, said Jackeline Piraján, the bank’s economist.
According to Piraján, on the one hand, the upward pressure on food will continue, and it is expected that services will continue to increase, “such as restaurant services, and those that are affected by the fact that rents rise or public services rise and additionally issues such as food that is an input for these services also continue to increase.
To the downside, from Scotiabank, a negative effect of the day without VAT that could help mitigate the rise a little.
From BBVA Research, it is projected, on the other hand, that June’s monthly inflation will stand at 0.55% and annual inflation at 9.72%. “Food is expected to maintain its leading role, with inflation falling compared to previous months but remaining well above its average for the month,” said Laura Peña, an economist at BBVA Research for Colombia.
In line with the above, according to Peña, the restaurants and hotels division will continue to show effects due to the rise in prices of products associated with fast food. Additionally, he said that the division of goods and services will show an inflation above the average, this due to the effects of the prices of personal hygiene items.
Like other analysts, Peña agrees that “the excellent sales results for the day without VAT, which reached $10.6 billion and exceeded the sales of the first day of 2022, will be reflected mainly in falls in the clothing division clothing and footwear and information and communication.
Carolina Monzón, manager of Economic Analysis at Itaú Colombia, also said: “For June we expect a monthly advance of 0.54% in inflation (9.71% year-on-year), with the prices of the food, housing and restaurant divisions as main markers”.
Juan David Ballén, director of Analysis and Strategy of the broker Casa de Bolsa, said that he expects a monthly variation of 0.57% and an annual variation of 9.74%. “Inflation will register a new high for the year due to the statistical base against it. A year ago, inflation was low due to the reopening after the national strike, ”he indicated.
In addition to these elements, another point that Camilo Pérez, manager of economic research at Banco de Bogotá, also referred to is that there are “adjustments in public services on the side of leases, and a quite relevant effect also of the day without VAT, which lowers inflation in some basics, but then it reverts even stronger”. The bank expects monthly inflation of 0.48% and annual inflation of 9.65%.
LAURA LUCIA BECERRA ELEJALDE
BRIEFCASE
