The financial market increased the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection for this year for the third consecutive time. According to an estimate by Boletim Focus, released today (6), in Brasília, according to the Central Bank, the GDP, which is the sum of all the wealth produced in the country, should end the year with growth of 0.85%, compared to the 0.84% projected last week.
Published weekly, the bulletin gathers the projection of more than 100 market institutions for the main economic indicators in the country. In this week’s estimate, Focus maintained the GDP forecast for 2024 – recorded seven days ago – at 1.50%. For 2025, the forecast is that the country will grow 1.80%.
Inflation
Regarding the inflation forecast for 2023, Focus maintained last week’s estimate, according to which the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) should remain at 5.90%. A week ago, the market projection was that inflation this year would stay at 5.36%. Four weeks ago, the calculation was 5.78%.
The forecast is above the inflation target for this year, defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), which is 3.25%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down. Thus, the target will be considered formally met if it fluctuates between 1.75% and 4.75%.
To reach the inflation target, the Central Bank uses the basic interest rate, the Selic, as its main instrument, set at 13.75% per year by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The rate is at its highest level since January 2017, when it was also at that level.
For 2024, the market also maintained last week’s inflation projection: 4.02%. Four weeks ago, the calculation was that the index closed next year at 3.93%. As for 2025, the IPCA is expected to stay at 3.80%.
Interest rate and exchange
The market also projected an increase for the Selic in 2023. In the estimate released this Monday, the basic rate should remain at 12.75% per year at the end of 2023, the same as last week. For the end of 2024, the market estimate for the Selic remained stable, remaining at 10% per year. For 2025, the forecast is that the Selic will be 9%.
As for the exchange rate, market expectations for the dollar exchange rate in 2023 are the same for the fifth consecutive week, closing the year at R$5.25. For 2024 and 2025, the market forecast is that the dollar will remain at R$5.30, the same as the previous week.
