The market expects to find signals from the members of the Governing Board of Banco de México about the impact they expect the collection measures that will come into force in January will have on inflation.
In separate analyzes experts from Barclays, Banamex and Pantheon Macroeconomics agreed on the relevance of knowing their opinion on the impact of the increase in excise taxes on sugary drinks and other products.
Barclays experts noted that “it will perhaps be even more important to review the Quarterly Report that Banxico will publish on November 26, which could provide a detailed analysis by staff on the possible effects of tax increases and the imposition of tariffs.”
Regarding the update of the current IEPS rate per liter of soft drinks and sugary juices, the chief economist for Latin America at Barclays, Gabriel Casillas, stressed that he expects one-time effects on the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) –
Since mid-October, interviewed by El Economista, he estimated that the increase in the IEPS could generate an impact of 26 basis points on the price index, “which will last at least 12 months,” although he commented that “they will not pressure inflation.”
Banamex analysts had already estimated that the increase in “healthy” taxes, as well as that of rights and benefits, would add 19 basis points to inflation in 2026.
Experts from both financial groups project that Banco de México will apply a pause in the cut cycle to evaluate the effects of fiscal pressures on prices and to verify if second-order effects will occur before continuing with the flexibility.
From London, analysts from the consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics warned that it will be particularly relevant to identify whether the fiscal adjustments that will come into force next year, particularly higher taxes, can slow down the disinflation process.
What the members of the Governing Board have said
Three of the five members of the Governing Board have spoken publicly about the impact they expect the entry into force of healthy taxes will have on inflation.
They are the Governor of Bank of Mexico, Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, as well as two deputy governors: Jonathan Heath and Omar Mejía Castelazo.
In an interview given to a specialized media, the governor of the Bank of Mexico anticipated that “the increase in the IEPS on soft drinks and other products, during the next fiscal year, would be limited.”
Separately, interviewed by El Economista, the dean of the Governing Board, Jonathan Heath, explained that he expects a “very marginal” impact of taxes on inflation, because it will imply an increase once and for all.
“We must remember that inflation is a sustained increase in prices, not a once-and-for-all increase. What is unfortunate is the timing, because it occurs precisely in January, when the bank in its projection is expecting the underlying price to begin to drop rapidly and that could prevent or could prevent that drop from being undone a little.”
And Deputy Governor Omar Mejía Castelazo, who participated in the specialized podcast “Norte Economico”, although he did not comment specifically on the IEPS on soft drinks and cigarettes, said that he hopes that both the national currency and the sluggishness of economic activity “point to a downward trajectory of inflation also in the coming months.”
The publication of the minutes corresponding to the November monetary decision, the penultimate of the year, is scheduled for Thursday the 20th. One day before Inegi releases the final GDP data for the third quarter. Data that from the timely estimate is shaping up to register the first negative performance at 0.3 percent.
At the Bank of Mexico, the majority of members of the Governing Board have warned since 2023 of slack in the product gap, and recently it has been negative.
In the central bank’s quarterly report, released at the end of August, they anticipated that “the point estimate of the output gap will widen into negative territory throughout 2025 and 2026.”
