A “great housing program” in 84 municipalities of Nicaragua and the multiplication of commercial exchange between this Central American country and the People’s Republic of China, are part of the proclamation of the operators of the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, in recent days, after the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations, after Ortega broke the link with China Taiwan, in December. However, economists warn that the Asian giant “is not giving away money”, as Venezuela did at the time, and would only be looking for “good business” in the region.
Economist Enrique Sáenz warns that China’s interest in Central America consists of “expanding its trade, in absolutely unbalanced relations and with smaller partners”, for which he points out that “an economy like Nicaragua’s does not have much that it can sell to China ”.
Despite skepticism, the Minister of Finance and Public Credit, Iván Acosta, predicted, during an interview on the official Channel 4, that the commercial exchange between Nicaragua and the Asian giant could be multiplied by seven in 2022, since having diplomatic relations makes it possible to “attract investment and cooperation” and described the event as “a great opportunity.”
According to Acosta, “exports to the People’s Republic of China in 2021 —when there were no diplomatic relations— it was 54 million dollars and only one good was fundamentally exported, which were recyclable materials”. For what he valued that “we have an additional market” for this 2022.
In the same sense, the press officer of the Chinese embassy in Nicaragua, Claudio Xu, pointed out —in another interview on the also official Channel 8— that his country would be interested in products such as: coffee, cigar, beef and seafood. “The Chinese are going to love all of that,” she said.
Also, the president of the Economy and Budget Committee of the National Assembly, Wálmaro Gutiérrez, stressed that unlike the United States and the European Union that “always impose different conditionalities and are unrelated to trade relations,” relations with China They are based on “solidarity and a lot of respect”, for which, he valued, “I believe that Nicaragua is not going to be the exception.”
China is not Venezuela
Despite the official optimism, the economist Sáenz points out that the experience of the Central American countries that have diplomatic and commercial relations with China is not “as spectacular” as Nicaragua tries to show.
In the case of Costa Rica, which already has a free trade agreement with China, “in 2020 the proportion of commercial exchange was one to five, that is, for every 20 dollars that Costa Rica sold to China it bought 100,” he emphasizes. . In addition “they have their stadium, as an infrastructure work in which no Costa Rican bricklayer worked, and a highway to the Caribbean that is several years behind schedule,” he analyzes.
In El Salvador, which previously also reestablished diplomatic relations with China, “the deficit in the commercial relationship (with China) is from one to twenty, that is, for every five dollars that El Salvador exported, it bought 100 in China,” he commented. Apart from that, it is only known that President Nayib Bukele returned from China with a portfolio of deals valued at 500 million yuan.
In the opinion of the economist “it is not strange that —as part of the propaganda— Ortega tries to sell himself as a privileged partner in a strategic alliance “in such a way that he can neutralize any action of the inter-American or European community.”
However, Sáenz warns, China is not Venezuela. The South American country “in the golden days provided, in terms of oil cooperation, an average of 550 million dollars a year. Are the Chinese going to match that? Venezuela became the second destination for Nicaraguan exports in two years, are Nicaraguan exports to China going to grow so spectacularly? ”, He questioned.
Xi Jinping’s message
A letter from President of China, Xi Jinping, to his Nicaraguan counterpart, Daniel Ortega, in which he communicates his interest in deepening “mutual political trust”, within the framework of renewed relations between the two nations, generated great expectations in the Nicaraguan Executive.
“In the (Chinese) New Year, I am willing to work together with you to deepen political mutual trust, promote cooperation in various fields, as well as shake hands to build a community with a shared future for mankind, lead China-China relations. Nicaragua,” Xi wrote to Ortega, according to the letter released by the Nicaraguan government.
It was a message that the first lady and spokeswoman for the Nicaraguan regime, Rosario Murillo, highlighted during a monologue at the end of January: “in less than two months, cooperation between both parties has already yielded fruitful results, and China-Nicaragua relations have taken a new look,” he said.
Nicaragua reestablished relations with China last Decemberafter breaking 31 years of diplomatic ties with Taiwan, considered a rebellious province by the Asian giant, and one of Nicaragua’s most generous donors, even after the political repression carried out against the April Rebellion in 2018.
Nicaragua’s change of position with respect to China occurred after the Organization of American States (OAS), the European Union, and the majority of the international community did not recognize the legitimacy of the elections last November, in which Ortega he was re-elected for a fourth consecutive term without political competition.
In recent weeks, Nicaragua and China signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a “mechanism for political consultations”, a “macro agreement” of mutual support, another on commercial cooperation, and another to exempt diplomatic passport holders from both visas. countries.
Relations between Nicaragua and China or Taiwan have been alternatives throughout history. Managua had previously recognized Beijing between 1985 and 1990, also under the Ortega presidency.
