Paris, Aug 31 (EFE).- With the end of the holidays and the school year just around the corner, France remains in uncertainty about its political future, despite the option of Bernard Cazeneuve, which divides the French left, is looking increasingly likely for prime minister.
There had been much speculation about the possibility that Emmanuel Macron The announcement was made this weekend – to avoid the academic year starting on Monday without a government – but this Saturday, after the two-day trip that took the head of state to Serbia, the Elysée Palace is keeping a tight lid on the possible appointment.
“This takes time,” pointed out from the presidential field the deputy Éléonore Caroit, who occupies the seat elected by French voters in Latin America, said on Saturday to BFMTV.
The main red line is that the current government led by Gabriel Attal, who remains in office after having resigned 47 days ago, can only manage current affairs and the next budget for the country should be debated in early October.
More imminently still, Brussels wait in just 20 days documents from Paris on how the country plans to control its sky-high deficit of 5.5%.
The only one without a majority against
At the same time, Cazeneuve himself, a 61-year-old politician and lawyer, has also maintained total silence since his name began to appear in the polls for the Matignon palace a few weeks ago.
Her candidacy emerged even more strongly on Monday, when Macron ruled out naming the candidate proposed by the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP), Lucie Castets, after having consulted all the parties.
The former Prime Minister of François Hollande (2016-2017) is, according to leaks from the Elysée to the press, the only personality capable of avoiding “a majority against.”
That is to say, as prime minister he would hypothetically guarantee a certain stability, as Macron wants, by gathering enough support to overcome motions of censure in a deeply divided National Assembly.
But the appointment of Cazeneuve, who is left-wing but left the Socialist Party in 2022 in protest at its alliances with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s more radical party, La France Insoumise (LFI), threatens to send shockwaves through the left, which until now had managed, with difficulty, to remain united in the NFP.
In this coalition, which is made up of socialists, communists, dissenters and ecologists, the official position remains that of defending Castets as the only option, since the NFP is the largest force in the Assembly (193 seats, far from the absolute majority of 289) and they demand from Macron the right to govern.
Beyond that, the strategic differences between the various parties are evident – as with the impeachment motion against Macron that LFI plans to present even though it has no chance of success – and keep the Socialist Party in the spotlight.
Socialism in the eye of the storm
“Our unity is indispensable,” stressed this Saturday the first secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, a supporter of the strategy of left unity, when closing the summer university days of his party.
Faure tried hard to dispel the fears, fanned by many within his own political family, of the PS being swallowed up by the rebels if the party continued along the path of alliances.
To this end, he argued that the PS’s place is to lead the left and warned against those seeking a division that, according to him, would only favour the extreme right and the continuation of Macronism.
Despite Faure’s stance, the press suspects that if Macron were to appoint Cazeneuve as prime minister, enough socialist and communist MPs would support him (by voting or abstaining) to avoid hypothetical motions of censure presented by the left.
Even Marine Le Pen’s far-right, the third-largest party in the Assembly with 142 deputies, has avoided threatening to censure Cazeneuve, something it did initially in response to the possibility of a government emerging from the NFP.
Thus, Cazeneuve could virtually hold on thanks to the Macronists (166 deputies), minority groups and the traditional right of the Republicans (47), who although they do not want to enter the government, do plan to collaborate with Macronism in legislative pacts.
In this scenario, the big question would be what kind of policies Cazeneuve would implement, since despite being a left-wing personality, he would depend mainly on Macronism and the right.
