Luis Nunes, Venezuelan political scientist: “Maduro said ‘if they win, there will be a bloodbath’” | VIDEO

There are eight polls. Maduro doesn’t win in any of them. The smallest difference is 20 points. The largest difference is, as you say, 40 points. Now, how can you hide the sun with a finger? On tours of the interior, only a few cats go, because they are public officials, and with all due respect to the cats. And at the opposition rallies, everything is spontaneous, because neither María Corina Machado nor Edmundo González have the money to finance an expensive campaign.

There are more active rallies.

I notice a substantial difference with the elections of 2013 and 2018. On both occasions there were also many people in the streets, but the government managed to intimidate them with repression. This time it has not been able to. People have lost their fear and are in the streets. And when they do not want to let María Corina Machado pass in a caravan, they put her on the green roads. Or they prevent the regime’s henchmen from mistreating her or cutting off her electricity. That reminds me a lot of what I experienced here in Peru in 2000 as an international observer. Montesinos was a fan of cutting off the electricity to the candidates. Once I was with Alejandro Toledo in Cusco and they cut off the electricity on the stage. And the Ministry of Health set up a free dental fair next door, so that people would leave. It’s like a manual.

Power outage affects electronic voting.

That’s right. The observers have been made to sign a commitment document. And they have been asked – unlike what I did here, where I gave statements to the media every month and a half – to make a private report after the election. Absurd. Who is going to read that? Academics a month later? They have to say specifically what is going to happen that day and that morning.

The reports are going to be leaked. Was there any pressure?

Of course. For government security reasons, each observer has a bodyguard. And if the observer goes to the warehouse, the observer reports back. There, they are not called observers, but companions. This has been a grammatical fallacy for the past two elections. The word ‘observation’ sounds like imperialism to them.

And the vote from abroad?

There isn’t. The Venezuelan electoral system is different from the Peruvian one. Here the electoral register is provided by Reniec. There is a civil identification office there that has the voters’ register. But you have to register to vote. In Peru, only six new voters were able to register. Six people, in addition to the Venezuelans living in Lima who have their documents in order and voted last time.

And how many are those?

I have no idea why the government is so secretive. It could be 1,500 or 2,500 Venezuelans. The majority of them don’t have documents. The government is terrified of the 5 or 6 million who are abroad.

Of the million and a half Venezuelans who migrated to Peru, will only six vote?

Only six new voters were able to register. There are six who are going to vote. It’s a mockery. And in Spain, for example, if you live in Madrid they make you vote in Vigo. Or you don’t have your grandmother’s birth certificate. It’s an electoral asymmetry.

There are several scenarios. Does Maduro lose in any of them?

There are several scenarios, including a negotiation that is taking place with the United States government. Because Maduro has been told, what if you leave? To Turkey, for example, where we know that he has a mansion and more than 5 billion euros abroad.

A silver bridge.

A silver bridge. Let’s say, because in the long run the International Criminal Court will probably come after him. But that is one of the scenarios, because these people are capable of anything. Look at the attack this morning on the cars of María Corina Machado. And more than a hundred campaign officials imprisoned or missing. It is a dictatorship.

The campaign heated up.

Like never before. This is not the case with Capriles or Guaidó. Because María Corina was prevented from being a candidate and they put Mrs. Corina Yoris in. They also blocked her and put in this Mr. Edmundo González, whose card the National Electoral Council can still withdraw. She never wanted to dialogue with the government, she never bowed her head to Chavez or Maduro. That is why they hate her, because they do not know where to hold her. And they have turned this campaign of repression around. The hotel that housed her is now a success. The lady who sold her empanadas has quadrupled her sales. They closed her little shop and now she sells on the street. That was not seen before.

And the United States?

I think the State Department found out that the numbers were the way they are and said ‘something has to be done here’. Maduro said at a small rally ‘if they win, there will be a bloodbath’. Words we had already heard here. That’s the situation. It’s very complicated, but we have a lot of faith in what will happen. We have to keep monitoring.

KEEP IN MIND

• “The Government is going to try to block the signal in digital media. There will be power cuts.”
• “Lula has said he will send two observers. Petro, no. Of the 10 candidates, some may resign and endorse. The rumor is that all of them will go with Maduro. But the numbers would not change the result much.”
• “Machado has said that he already has all the necessary witnesses at the table. In the past it was difficult because they were kidnapped.”
• “Maduro’s photo is repeated 13 times on the card.”