Adjustments in 44% of the first circle of the President

Luis Linares Zapata: Economy and Succession

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With increasing intensity, the multiple vicissitudes that the presidential succession entails are outlining the current situation in Mexico. The boil has been bubbling for some time and the ingredients that will define it have been planted with sufficient penetration and clarity. From now on there will be no step, no time, outside of such a complex and important event. Its own dynamics and consequent development will impose itself without pause or rest.

Meanwhile, and awaiting the following chapters, the current version is accompanied by financial trimmings and its effects affect and are conditioned by the behavior of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). In this way, the elusive inflation, which furiously affects the US economy, spreads its aggressive tentacles around the world. But, especially, and for us, the gaze must focus on what may or may not happen in Mexico.

At the same time and for a better location, what happens in other regions should be collected. Comparative utility helps to better calibrate what is own to extract vital lessons. In Argentina, for example, the concomitant instability of rampant inflation and the country’s own inherited indebtedness has led to a string of seemingly irrational resignations and appointments to the central cabinet. Suddenly and due to rivalries between a harassed Alberto Fernández and the protagonism of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, a new economy superminister (Sergio Massa) is elevated, suddenly and as an apparent solution. This character, at least in the disinformation media, already rivals the president himself for power. Meanwhile, the Argentine peso, due to its own weakness, suffers the constant beating of the markets that flap the avidity of the citizenry. The weight is divided into two versions of value: the normal and the so-called blue which today is changed to several times more than the first. A mess already seen by southerners before. In Colombia, suddenly, the thirst for the dollar seems to find no rest. The waves caused will put the recently released Gustavo Petro in additional problems to those of the war. In Peru and since the very election of the indigenous primary school teacher (Pedro Castillo) he has already undergone several complete cabinet changes. The inevitable concomitant instability, provoked from within by the indigenous right, magnifies the current inflationary shocks. People in the streets demand better fuel prices, as is the case in Ecuador.

In Germany they impose cold showers and blackouts on themselves as a result of their acute dependence on Russian gas. They will not be able, at least in the medium term, to mitigate the possible complete absence of this vital fuel. And all this as a consequence, not well foreseen, of the crazy and arrogant sanctions imposed on its now feared Russian neighbor. The Italians enter into their almost customary turbulence at the political summit in the face of, among other things, fears of running out of enough energy induced by their positions on the Ukrainian conflict.

Inflation throughout the European Union is already causing great pain and tension to power and citizens without having a clear future forecast. The discussion about the inevitability of the US recession will undoubtedly be the central dispute in the upcoming elections in that country. The already weak figure of Joe Biden will open a dangerous attack front for his rivals.

The derived lessons make it inevitable to meditate on the current stability of Mexico. Despite excessive inflation (8 percent), the economy is heading in the right direction. There is no instability whatsoever that is induced by the behavior of the federal Executive nor by the always tendency to speculation in the markets. The clamor for the lack of investment, together with the possible imagined recession and the insistent call to take advantage of the Sino-American conflict, integrates a whole critical diffusion current. The entrenched right-wing opposition tries, in vain, to focus on something other than their fierce rejection of the government’s popular policies. They have outlined, with insistent chatter, the image of a country in crisis and an inefficient and chaotic government. They will then have no competitor by 2024.

The trials as to which of the candidates for the Presidency, already in an open campaign, is, or would be, the least bad option for their massive interests, spreads growing doubts. They uncover their preferences with redoubled fury. The truth is that both Ebrard and Claudia and Monreal have made their visions for the future explicit. The way in which these offers correspond to the needs and drives of the people will focus their disputed preferences.

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