The Brazilian economy is expected to grow 2.5% next yearafter growing 2.31% in 2025. The estimate is in the Budgetary Guidelines Law Project (PLDO) 2026sent this Tuesday (15) to the National Congress.
By official estimates, inflation by the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) will drop to 3.5% in 2026, 3.1% in 2027 and 3% 2028 and 2029against 4.9% scheduled for this year. Projections for the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), used in the minimum wage correction, will be 3.4% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, 2028 and 2029, less than the 4.76% designed for this year.
Regarding the IPCA, the official inflation index, the projection for next year is within the goal of 3% defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), with a margin of 1.5 percentage points. With the tolerance interval, inflation may be between 1.5% and 4.5% next year without resulting in non -compliance with the goal.
The project also foresees SELIC rate (basic interest rates of the economy) accumulated by 12.56% per year to 202610.09% for 2027, 8.27% for 2028 and 7.27% for 2029. Currently, Selic is 14.25% per year.
The text sent to Congress provides for average exchange rate to R $ 5.97 to 2026R $ 5.91 in 2027, R $ 5.07 by 2028 and R $ 5.10 to 2029. The project also estimates the average price of the oil barrel (used to estimate Royalties union revenues) at US $ 66.74 next year, $ 66.26 in 2027, $ 66.42 in 2028 and $ 66.65 in 2029.
