Although a month has passed since the seventh commission of the Senate filed with a short majority of the labor reform project that settled the government of Gustavo Petro for more than 550 days, the situation of this project still It is not clear, since there are legal resources that have not been defined and open the door to return.
This is noted by a report by Escandón Abogados y Orza, who stressed that although it would be clear that the popular consultation is the way to follow, all the steps to close the chapter of the work have already been left to close just over two months to close this legislative period, it remains to be resolved the appeal filed by Senator Fabián Díaz, of the Green Party.
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“It is, in fact, the Government Project with a longer time on Agenda Legislative in the last 20 years. In that context, the block argument is functional for the government for the popular consultation, ”they said in the report.
In all this we must also bear in mind that the lack of flexibility of the Executive during the negotiation process with Congress has been a determining factor in its stagnation, as well as the absence of technical support and clarity on the impact of this initiative on the national economy and the labor market.
Labor reform
Time
“The current appeal is the last resort within the legislative procedure before its archive. Although legally viable according to article 166 of Law 5 of 1992, its approval is highly unlikely. Not only because the accidental commission responsible for study Autonomy of the constitutional commissions, compared to the plenary and, even more, in front of the Executive, ”they added.
This decision is in the hands of an accidental commission, made up of senators Juan Pablo Callo, Marcos Pineda, Efraín Cepeda and Jorge Luis Pérez; who voted against the appeal. Likewise, there are Pedro Flórez and Ariel Ávila; whose votes were in favor, while Senator Angélica Lozano, according to the report, is the only one to define her position.
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A steep path
Another fact that attracts attention is that although unlikely, in case The appeal prospens, the project should again take its third debate in the Senate, with a clock against which it expires on June 20 and taking into account the time for the presentations to be written, the transit time between the commission and the plenary, the existence of other key projects for the Executive and for the congressmen, it can be concluded that there is no time to supply the required debates required
“The inability of the Government to consolidate majorities in Congress is not an accident of the legislative process, but the foreseeable result of an improvised governance scheme. At the beginning of the legislative period, the official coalition had 78 senators declared as part of the government,” says the report.
Plenary of the House of Representatives in the Congress of the Republic.
Pedro Vargas
Regarding the latter, they remember that today that figure has been reduced to 39. That is, the Executive has lost control of more than half of its formal backup base in the Senate. The rest, divided between independents (43) and opposition (23), It operates with autonomy and under negotiation logic that the Government has failed to read or manage.
“In parallel, the instability of the cabinet has been another erosion factor. With 44 ministers in less than three years and an average permanence of 11.2 months per wallet, the government has demonstrated a lack of alarming continuity. The portfolios of education and transport have been especially unstable, which is not less if both are considered to be key to the social agenda of the president,” they said.
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And the consultation?
From Escandón Abogados and Orza they also analyzed the situation of the popular consultation that the Gustavo Petro’s government is ready, at the head of the Labor and Interior Ministries and stated that it will become an electoral event, in a political event, a political pulse between the Executive and the Legislative, given that in Congress they insist on maintaining the door open to discuss the labor reform.
“Behind this political pulse there is more than labor standards. For the Executive, The consultation is not only an alternative route to relive its reform, but an instrument of political pressure. If the Senate does not give him the favorable concept required, he can accuse the Congress of blocking the citizen mandate; If he does, although the consultation does not exceed the threshold, the government will have managed to install its narrative, ”they explained.
Popular consultation.
Archive time
For these analysts, the strategy is functional, since it presses Congress to move, it allows to mobilize its bases, and gives Petro a tribune to anticipate the tone of his leadership towards the campaigns of 2026.
“The president has already announced that the draft questions will be personally on May 1, International Labor Day, in the middle of union mobilizations. That act, loaded with symbolism, seeks to consolidate the support of the workers’ centrals, reinforce the link with its traditional electorate and position the story that it is Congress that slows social advances, ”they said.
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It should be remembered that from the filing, the Senate will have 20 days, extendable for 10 more, to issue the favorable previous concept. If he does, the Government will have to issue the call decree and organize a vote in the middle of the pre -election year, in the midst of interparty consultations and campaigns to Congress.
“The government expects to advance the consultation in October. Beyond the content of the consultation, What is at stake is the government’s ability to recover initiative in an adverse institutional context. The consultation is not just a legal mechanism: it is a political play designed to reorganize the conditions of the debate, emotionally activate its bases and strengthen a popular leadership account in the face of a political class perceived as hindered, ”says the report.
Analysts closed indicating that this double game strengthens the narrative of the President of the Republic, since if Congress acts, it validates social pressure; If not, it reinforces the idea that only the street brought the reforms. However, the implementation of the reform by decree has legal limits and could only be done with decrees With force of law under strict conditions, as an approved and unanswered consultation of the Congress.
