The La Niña phenomenon, if the trends in the forecast models are correct, will probably be weak and the usual effects may not be felt, according to climatologist Francis Lacerda, from the Pernambuco Agronomic Institute, in an interview with the program Living Naturefrom the Amazon National Radio.
La Niña is marked by the abnormal cooling of the waters of the Pacific Ocean.
According to Francis, La Niña causes rain in the Northeast of Brazil, and generates drought in the South, much of the Center-West and Southeast.
The climatologist explains that the phenomenon began the cooling process two months ago, but at a slower speed than usual.
“What we have observed and forecast models from around the world indicate is that La Niña this year is late, it was supposed to be a little more advanced in time and the forecast is that it will be a weak La Niña”, he said.
According to the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), the probability of La Niña in the months of October-November-December increases to 60%.
For the month of October, Inmet’s forecast is for above-average rainfall in a large part of the South Region, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and south of Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais and there should be a gradual return of rain to central part of the country in the second fortnight.
Climate change
The climatologist highlighted the issue of climate change, which was addressed at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly last week, mainly in the speech of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who defended the multilateralism as a path to overcoming climate urgency.
For Francis Lacerda, actions to minimize the impacts of climate change, such as reducing emissions, still face resistance from economic sectors to be put into practice, such as agribusiness, which is still “based on large-scale production and the production of cattle and meat that is exported”. “Energy and water are converted into these commodities and we here are suffering from actions so that this commodity and agribusiness sector grows to the detriment of our biome and the total lack of climate control”, he highlights.
Another point mentioned by the climatologist is the possibility of the Amazon reaching the point of no return (a stage in which a certain process becomes irreversible, for example, deforestation) which will, according to Francis Lacerda, have serious consequences for the country. She argues that it is necessary to stop considering the biome “a giant pasture” for raising cattle and planting soybeans.
As for forest fires, which occurred in different regions of the country, the climatologist said that the majority must have criminal intent with the intention of burning environmental protection areas.
Monitoring, based on satellite images and fire alerts, shows that 99% of fires in Brazil are caused by humansmainly in the Amazon, Cerrado and Pantanal.
