Having a majority in the Legislative Branch, Morena and allies have approved around 20 reforms in the first regular period of sessions, which were characterized by “hasty, lacking broad releases” processes.
“It has been a common practice that sessions are called late at night and, sometimes, fundamental changes are approved at dawn with less attention from the media and the legislators present,” the report states.
And it warns that these practices could continue in 2025, with a legislative agenda that will incorporate proposals for secondary laws and constitutional reforms such as the electoral reform or the one that reduces the working day to 40 hours a week.
5. Mexico-United States bilateral relationship
The arrival of Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States will imply pressure for Mexico in areas such as trade, security and migration.
In his second term, Trump not only arrives with more force, but also with threats, and with a team, some of whose members are anti-immigrant or critics of Mexico, such as Marco Rubio or Tom Homan.
“Based on Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric and recent threats directed at Mexico and other countries, the unilateral imposition of tariffs by the United States is expected, making international trade one of the main axes of its foreign policy. In the particular case of Mexico, the imposition of tariffs, which would violate the USMCA, will be used as a bargaining chip in the demand for greater immigration controls and greater security with respect to fentanyl trafficking,” the report reads.
There are two key dates in the T-MEC review: October 2025 when a public consultation process begins with the private sector and January 2026 when the United States Trade Representative presents a report describing the Trump administration’s recommendations regarding the Agreement and its decision on the possible extension of the agreement.
Added to these conditions is the uncertainty that will prevail in the independence of the Judiciary derived from the reform, which has raised concerns about legal certainty for businesses operating in Mexico and the attraction of foreign direct investment.
One aspect that should not be forgotten is the possible deportation of thousands of Mexicansas Trump has stated.
“It is known that the Mexican government is preparing to face this challenge by building robust consular support networks through the Foreign Ministry. However, if these are not accompanied by public governance policies and the reinforcement of public security on the border, social and economic tensions can be generated in an already highly pressured public finances scenario,” the report highlights.
6. Deterioration in the health of public finances.
In what will be the first full year of Claudia Sheinbaum’s government, public finances face significant pressures, after the 2025 Economic Package proposed among the objectives to reduce the deficit and public debt, and it has been announced that there will be no tax reform and social spending will be maintained.
“These pressures are reflected in cuts in key sectors such as security, health, education and the environment. On the other hand, almost 80% of the projected expenditures will be directed to the payment of pensions, transfers and debt, which leaves little room for the implementation of other flexible public policies aimed at meeting the objectives of President Sheinbaum’s administration. announced on October 1,” says the reform.
For this year, the government estimated an “optimistic” economic growth between 2 and 3%, however, if the Federal Government’s income estimates do not materialize, negative effects on savings and consumption can be expected.
Added to this is public investment spending by 2025, which will be just under 997,000 million pesos, which is equivalent to 2.8% of GDP, which is returned to 2019 levels.
“This represents a figure well below the 5 percent recommended by the OECD, but also insufficient to attract investments and take advantage of the opportunities presented by the phenomenon of relocation, or nearshoring,” the report indicates.
