He lives in Peru, from where he reflects on the elections on Sunday, August 17 in his native Bolivia.
Three days after the presidential elections, Luis Arce replaces the entire military dome. Bang?
It is a provocation and irresponsibility of the regime to take this type of measures that alarm the population just a few days after the election. Arce wants to save his accomplices from the FF.AA.
What is the panorama?
The Bolivian people are very confident in the surveys. Doria Medina leads the electoral preference with approximately 21%. Followed by Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga, which would have one less point, 20%. From there, thirdly, there is a young man, which apparently is good news, by surname peace. Rodrigo Paz is the son of former president Jaime Paz. He is with 8%. The regime candidate, Andrónico Rodríguez, appears in fifth place with 6%.
Two right -wing games. And with parliamentary majority.
There is an attitude of great optimism in people because the regime has completely degraded in these 20 years. Not even their old social bases are already confident in the regime or their promises.
Look: President of Bolivia changes to a military dome to three days of elections
Too much optimism?
What happens is that we continue to trust the surveys as an approximately safe guide of what happens in the electorate. But surveys have not been true in Bolivia for a long time. They have not been adjusted with the feeling of the people. Evo Morales won the 2018 elections apparently with surveys in favor. And I had really lost them. That is why there was a monumental electoral fraud. The regime controls the judicial system, the electoral system, the parliamentary system, the army, the police and the pollsters. The regime influences, extortes and corrupts businessmen and journalists. Hoping that such a network of political illegality can accept a defeat is always in the suspicion of citizens and any more or less serious analyst.
You have to wait for the dirty game of the regime.
Beyond optimism and what the surveys point out, we are all waiting for where the trap is. Because if all according to the surveys, we would have a second round between someone who claims a social democrat, which is Doria Medina, and someone who claims a liberal conservative, who is ‘tuto’ Quiroga. They are men of democracy, so the succession and alternation of powers would be respected, which does not happen with this regime. That paradise that is dating from the surveys calls many Bolivians to distrust. Because in these 20 years the regime has been Ruin, cheater and criminal. And it has had to do with drug trafficking and the arrest of politicians. Jeanine Áñez is still imprisoned without sentence.
There are 30% of blank and undecided votes.
If we were in a transparent election we would know that a percentage of them would vote for a candidate. And another would remain in his insistence on null, white or undecided. The great fear is that 30%, from fraud, is located in favor of the regime candidate, Andrónico Rodríguez. They have already done it in the past. In 2006 I made a hunger strike to Evo Morales. The protest grew to 1,500 strikers for the violation of constitutional norms. Already at that time I denounced the presence of Venezuelan cooperation in national identification. The process began with the fraud machine. That fraud grew. And then the dead voted. And there were 500 inhabitants where 5 thousand voted. Cuban intelligence has been permeating Bolivian society.
How much Venezuelan influence is there?
In 2019, a Bolivian engineer discovered how they entered the machine to place votes. It was denounced, the OAS took it and the election of Evo Morales fell. In 2020, when Luis Arce rose, there was also fraud. Jimena Acosta, an important Bolivian analyst and academic, has denounced that thousands of Venezuelans are entering Bolivia with the story of repatriation from Chile. And that these thousands of Venezuelans were going to vote.
Evo Morales He says Luis Arce will go to Venezuela.
Many would have to escape. It would not be as in the time of Jeanine Áñez, in which few escaped. Now they would escape more for the Trump factor, which plays another type of equation. The American support will be stronger and more determined to the new government. And the public will demand the processing of the culprits of drug trafficking, corruption and murder. The United States will demand drug trafficking heads. And will restructure the DEA’s intelligence services. Only the pass to the second round of both would produce important processes of justice. Therefore, the most of them would go to destinations where they cannot be extradited. I think Arce, Evo and many ministers and operators would prepare suitcases to leave. The rats would begin to leave the ship that sinks.
And after tomorrow?
Anyway we will have a very rough path. You have to take radical measures. They have destroyed the economy. Bolivia was a gas exporter and now we have no gas. There is much to restructure. And it will not be popular. Uploading the price of gasoline is never popular. That is why a parliamentary pact is important to withstand the onslaught. They always try to control the street, set the country on fire and give instability. But I think the gringos are going to support.
How will it affect the elections of Bolivia In Peru?
Puno still has a lot of Bolivian influence. They are Aimara blocks. The radicality of Puno is prompted by the indigenist radicality of the MAS (Movement to Socialism) and the plurinational insurgency. Illegal gold will continue to leave Bolivia. It is a hub of illegality.
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