José Blanco: Trumpian arbitrariness

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l Declive of globalization Neoliberal brought with it the decline of the United States domain (EU) in the world economy. The Empire tends to run out and, in response, Joe Biden’s recovery projects arise to Donald Trump’s. This is the background of the same project: to restore the previous place of the US, although the style, intensity, roads and instruments of each character are different.

In June 2022, then President Biden said at a press conference in Madrid: “I think we all agree that this has been a Historical Summit of NATO … The last time NATO wrote a new declaration of principles was 12 years. At that time [yo] He described Russia as a partner, and did not even mention China. The world has changed, has changed a lot since then. And NATO is also changing. At this summit we have gathered our alliances to face both the direct threats that Russia represents for Europe and the systemic challenges that China poses for a world order based on rules. ” The same speech, with other words and in other spaces and circumstances, was repeated many times by Biden. Certainly, The rules That has invoked Biden are the neoliberal rules for US domain. Trump, meanwhile, is in the same and is in a hurry; although it seems to doubt the war as a way to impose itself to the rest of the world. The force of US capital and the instruments of the economy, very particularly tariffs, are their privileged weapons; His issue is to bend to others, as a capitalist subjugates other capitalists in the sand of capitalist competition.

The Biden-Trump project is registered by necessity in the journey of the boom and the inexorable decline of neoliberal globalization. The turning point and beginning of the neoliberal journey was the loud fall of the USSR (1989-1991), the result of a terminal crisis caused by a long history of weakening of its economy. Centralized planning found limits imposed by digital technology in the field of economic control and administration of the 1950-1980, then underdeveloped; The planning of the USSR, in addition, was affected by a galloping corruption within the political elites, facilitated by a political organization of the State without surveillance and correction mechanisms by the Soviet society.

The USSR dissolves in December 1991 with the resignation of Mijaíl Gorbachev and continues a decade of extreme crisis: corruption grew even more with Boris Yeltsin, a colossal economic chaos, the assumption of the Washington consensus, the acute impoverishment of society , Yeltsin’s alcoholism and unprecedented calamities sank Russia. According to World Bank figures, between 1989 and 1998, the domestic product fell 6.3 percent in real terms on average, year after year; thus lost 53.3 percent of its internal production. From 2000 another story would begin for Russia by Vladimir Putin: the economy grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent. Biden predicted that Russia would become A couple With the sanctions that the NATO set applied after the invasion of Ukraine, but the opposite happened, the economy advanced faster than in the previous years.

And China emerged to swinging drum. A unique accelerated growth case. With World Bank figures, between 1980 and 2000, its economy multiplied 6.2 times, and between 2000 and 2023 it increased 6.14 times. In the same periods, according to the same source, the US economy rose by 1.9 and 1.6 times. In 2023 China was the second largest economy in the world: EU nominal GDP was equivalent to 1.52 times China’s GDP. In the same year and source, China was the first economy in the world: its GDP PPA (by exchange parity) was equivalent to 1.19 times the EU GDP. China is the first manufacturing power with 31.6 percent of the world total, according to the EU Safeguard Global portal; It is followed, with 15.9 percent. It is also the second power in foreign direct investment and has created infrastructure works in almost 150 countries. China has taken its ships to the moon and Mars, like the US; Both countries compete in quantum computing, artificial intelligence and a long etcetera. That is why China represents a systemic threat.

Trump is especially concerned about the commercial deficit that EU has with many countries, in particular the one with China. According to the United States Census Office, the US trade deficit with China gradually increased from 6 billion dollars, in 1985, to the Amazing figure (words of that office) of 382 billion dollars in 2022 (279 billion in 2023). The deficit with China led Donald Trump, in March 2018, to start a commercial war against China, imposing tariffs for 50 billion dollars to products from this eastern country. China responded by imposing tariffs on 128 US products, including soybeans, one of the main exports from USA to China.

It seems that we will see a second part of that war that, somewhat SottovoceBiden kept, accusing China of heist of intellectual property and fraudulent commercial practices, among other things. The US trade deficit with China (with many other countries) will be converted into a commercial war mounted on the dreadful ignorance of Mr. Trump. Last week in a statement against NATO said that Spain was a BRICS country. It will be to be seen how far the tariff threatens will come.

The fundamental determinants of the balance of the commercial balance of a country are macroeconomic. The US external commercial deficit with China is determined by the EU savings and investment levels, not by China’s commercial and industrial policies, which may be hardly related to that deficit.

In September 2024, the IMF (not any dangerous leftist) published the study Trade Balances in China and The Us Are Largely Driven by Domestic Macro Forces (Commercial scales in China and the United States are mainly driven by national macroeconomic forces [https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/09/12/trade-balances-in-china-and-the-us-are-largely-driven-by-domestic-macro-forces]). The study explains the origin of the surpluses and deficit of China and the US, and presents its economic analysis. The tariffs have little or very little relationship with the effective march of the balance of payments. But the Blind Palls of the Commercial War will continue because the elementary protectionist mercantilism of Trump and its ultramillionaire partners will properly properly with great enthusiasm. Nor way: Trumpist arbitrariness can cause great disorders in the world economy, and in the gringa economy Type Harakiri.

Nothing will change the EU determination to make China the main reason for its fall. This set will be the main axis of the world conflict and will mark the character of social and political struggle. For that cavernícola lawsuit, eu will gather all the force you can: it will stop all aid Outside, it will suspend all the wars that you can because your matter is not to win with military force, but to win silver rivers. He will move away from NATO. He already withdrew from the Paris agreement and sends the devil his environmental obligations: “We have an energy emergency, so we are going to pierce, Babyto drill, ”said Mr. Trump. It turns out, however, that, as several publications they pointed out, there is no such thing as an energy emergency. Petroleum and gas production is overcoming the growth of consumption, the EU lives a boom of its oil exports; So much that its outer oil balance is overravitary; It is actually undergoing his megaproject of the Stargate.

Human health in the trash, Goodbye, World Health Organization, Goodbye. The arbitrariness of the troglodite will not know rest, seeking to win more and more. It doesn’t matter that in recent years their billionaires have taken over more millions than ever, you have to go for more. And, of course, the gringo process invites all the rich of the planet to go further, with the disinhibition ahead, as the new masters of the Big Tech in the inauguration. Thomas Piketty will astonish us with the degree to which the inequality that awaits us will arrive. The rights and ultra -right of the world are in Plácemes and already see new states to conquer to enlarge their coffers: Germany, for example.

China, it is warned, is the very principal reason why Trump will try deeper interventions in Latin America. Remedial and preventive. The inauguration of the port of Chancay – that the Chinese pronounce Shanghai! -, in Peru, 75 kilometers from Lima, was the drop that spilled the glass beyond what Trump can tolerate. Chancay was destined to become the first HUB Chinese logistics for its operation in South America. American imperialism does not tolerate it. We still don’t know how Trump will prevent this project from prospering. For now, it is proposed to appropriate the Panama Canal.

So that there are no doubt, among Trump’s first static decisions was the cancellation of the Biden agreement to withdraw Cuba from the US list of terrorism sponsors. Trump is probably going to use many more thoroughly against Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, but not just. Maga requires Latin America to be aligned with the Empire. The Latin American countries that have been drawing from their asylum and their prisons to their worst murderers and rapists to send them to the US, including Mexico, according to Trumpian narrative atrabrabilian, they will see them with Trump. That is, the migration that EU systematically turns undocumented, is the alibi ideological to hold Latin America to its purpose of reconquering worldwide culmen.

On the other hand, among Millionaires the treatment is not easy. Elon Musk bitely criticized Mr. Trump’s Stargate project, of 500 billion dollars, dedicated to artificial intelligence. And Mrs. Susie Wiles denied Musk an office in the White House.

Neoliberal globalization is on a slide. The Trumpian hurricane will help you collect faster.