The cabinet does not accompany the Minister of Economy, Kurt Burneogiving confidence to investors, assured the president of the Peruvian Chamber of Construction (Capeco), Jorge Zapata.
How is the construction sector this year?
Let’s divide this into two parts: the public and private works. In public works we know that the contracting system, which includes the State Contracting Law, is not working properly. We have a very large number of paralyzed works, almost 2,300. If we add the infrastructure deficit, which has worsened since the National Infrastructure Plan was formulated almost five years ago, and we add the cases of corruption in the central government and regional and municipal governments, we see that this public procurement system It’s an already collapsed mess.
And on the private side?
Basically it is made up of housing because today, on the side of offices and retail commerce, we are a bit unemployed. On the housing side, we are also suffering the impact of a small drop in demand, but more than that, the large rise in interest rates and construction costs.
Do you foresee moderate housing prices in 2023?
We believe that this has to be moderated. There are some materials that had reached their peak and have started to decline and others that have stabilized. So we are betting that construction materials have a slight drop in the face of 2023.
Could that lead us to more stable housing prices in 2023 than in 2022?
It is quite relative because the price of the house is not related to the exact moment where it is built. What the developer does is calculate how much it can cost when it is delivered (…). There is also a demand component. If it falls, like any economic formula, that also pushes prices down. Most likely, prices will stabilize. We don’t think they’re going down.
Central banks have raised benchmark interest rates to curb inflation, making lending more expensive, but this could change in 2023. How good or bad would next year be for mortgages?
Traditional mortgage loans, which do not have a Mivivienda component or subsidies, have been falling and will probably stabilize at somewhat low numbers. As for loans for social housing, these have been growing and may continue, but it all depends on how much the rates move. It seems that the movements of the reference rates set by the central banks have reached their ceiling (…). We think that social housing is going to perform well, its participation is going to increase in the next year and non-social housing is going to be maintained in terms of sales. As for prices, it is most likely that they will stay at the same prices that we are experiencing today.
How does the sector see the Impulso Peru plan, announced by the Minister of Economy and Finance, Kurt Burneo?
I think the plan is good. It is well thought out and well crafted. The proposals are interesting. The problem is that the rest of the cabinet that accompanies the Minister of Economy, of which we have good references, does not accompanies giving confidence to the investments. On the other hand, we are not solving the underlying problem, which is the bad hiring system we have.
And how has the increase in conflict in the mining sector been affecting you?
It certainly affects negatively. Mining projects are a great feeder for the construction sector and if mining is paralyzed, they invest less, there will be less construction and that is transferred to various investments that require infrastructure.
The central highway is a project in development. The PMO France has developed a plan, but there is also the proposal of the Regional Government of Lima, which supports the College of Engineers. What do you think about it?
The important thing there is to analyze the two proposals in depth, to analyze them with a first-rate technical team because we cannot be wrong. We cannot make the stroke where it is less convenient. I would recommend that a thorough analysis be done before starting either project.
