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the campaign started for the election for governor of the state of Mexico that will culminate in the polls on Sunday, July 7, 2023. It is the most politically important entity in the country after Mexico City. Depending on the vote in it, its weight will influence the national strength of the parties and the contenders for the following year. It will be a kind of echo.
Given the climate of national violence, without unhealthy alarmism, it can be said that it will be a battle of serious risks of various kinds for the national image, for the future of the state, its parties and contenders.
It is not only who wins, but who he is, his origins and commitments, a task that the parties today questioned on such a delicate issue should fulfill. The date is propitious for electoral violence and its consequences and, by leaving it there, they will also be useful weeks for common criminality.
In those times, each municipality is a possible area of conflict and there are 125 of them. Each government, whether state or municipal, should assume its constitutional responsibilities to guarantee peace; few will. This is where the responsibility, instead of being carried out according to the law in a pyramidal way, based on the municipality, will assume the shape of a funnel, with the greatest burden falling on the federal institutions, armies and National Guard.
Criminal maps already identify red zones of high danger, not only electoral, but criminal violence. Tierra Caliente is present, the border with Guerrero and also critical urban concentrations such as Chalco or Ecatepec. Much must be done now to prevent crimes around the process. A difficult year is to be expected.
As axes of the campaign, the central actors will be PAN, PRI and Morena, therefore, natural protagonists of confrontation, without dismissing the participation in the issue of another party, since their votes, duly associated, will bring them dividends.
The candidates are already sticking out their ears. Enrique Vargas, today a local deputy and former mayor of Huixquilucan, will weigh heavily on the PAN. His presence is widespread in the conurbation municipalities of the northwest of Mexico City.
From Morena are Professor Delfina Gómez Álvarez, Secretary of Federal Public Education, Higinio Martínez, Senator, and Horacio Duarte Olivares, General Director of Customs. This victory is vital to this match.
The PRI, owner of the state for 90 years, following the ritual will lean on Toluca, but its greatest enemy is its internal failures. The invincible national must first get out of the well in which he helped sink it so much wing. You are forced to figure out how to get out of it. It will not be easy for the party or for the leader to find how to stay or how to leave.
Its most visible candidates are former Secretary of Government Ernesto Nemer and Secretary of Economic Development Alejandra del Moral, surely respectable, but without sufficient weight.
Aware, the PRI will make full use of its winning machine, experience, and resources that remain vast. The institutional has before him four alleys whose exit is not seen: 1) how to subsist with wing presiding over; 2) how to get rid of it; 3) how to disappear with dignity, and 4) how to prevent the drag of destiny from solving everything.
The foreseeable duel will be between the electoral machines; their national leadership will risk everything, including their vices. Each party has its black history in terms of electoral violence. So the pot will soon boil.
Individually, the PAN or the PRI or in a coalition will go with their maximum power against Morena and the latter will defend his expectation of being all-powerful by 2024 and whatever comes after.
The PAN has a strong presence in the state, especially in its vicinity to the northwest of Mexico City. For the discredited, rigid and inadaptable PRI, recklessly facing the worst crisis of its existence could be the end. For Morena, it is a decisive occasion for a long future. For the national political system, this is not good news.
The Mexican election, depending on whether it is won or lost, will mark the life of the parties. The ferocity of the battle is a serious risk for each contender, his party and the prestige of the state, which is high. All this is of national interest, which is to be taken into account. It’s not just another choice.
Throughout the following months, a dose of violence in the state would damage the image of the country. Great opportunity for crime to signify itself!
As a final reflection, it would be desirable to be able to assume that the federal, state, and municipal political, intelligence, and election operation bodies are jointly doing their homework. I doubt it, we’ll play hearsay again and then blame ourselves.
