The Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the sum of all goods and services produced in the country) fell by 1.4% in January compared to December, according to the GDP Monitor, released today (21) by the Getulio Vargas Foundation. . In the mobile quarter ending in January, there was growth of 1%, compared to the mobile quarter ending in October. Compared to January 2021, the economy grew by 1.2% in January this year. In monetary terms, the study estimates that GDP, in current values, totaled BRL 769.384 billion in January 2022.
The coordinator of the GDP-FGV Monitor, Claudio Considera, reported that the national economy grew by an average of 1.1% quarterly between January 2019 and February 2020, before the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic. From March 2020 to January 2022, the average growth was 0.4%. In these same intervals, agriculture grew by 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively; industry fell by 0.7% and grew by 0.7; services expanded by 1.4% and 0.2%. On the demand side, household consumption grew by 2.3% and fell by 1%; government consumption reduced by 0.5% and 1%.
“These numbers translate well the impact of the pandemic on results that were already mediocre before it. Household consumption and government consumption represent 80% of GDP and were significantly affected, initially by the lack of vaccines and, later, by the lack of a vaccination program, as is well illustrated by the failure of this demand during the pandemic”, he said. Consider.
Consumption
In the case of household consumption, using the same basis of comparison, the economist said that consumption of non-durables grew by 1.1% and 0.3%; consumption of semi-durables grew by 1.5% and then stagnated; consumption of durables grew by 5.1% and dropped by 0.1%; and the consumption of services grew 2.6% and 0.8%. “Notably the consumption of services, which represents 52% of the consumption of families, depends on social interaction, which was hampered by the lack of vaccination”, said the coordinator of the PIB-FGV Monitor.
In the mobile quarter ended in January this year, compared to the same period last year, household consumption grew by 1.9%. This was the fourth consecutive month that the services component was the only one with positive rates.
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which measures investments in GDP, increased 1.3% in the moving quarter ended in January, compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to FGV, this activity continues to show decreasing rates since June last year. The GDP-FGV Monitor reveals that the average monthly investment rates since January 2000 was 18%, while the average monthly investment rates since January 2015 reached 16.3%. In January 2022, the growth rate was 18.8%.
Foreign trade
The GDP Monitor-FGV shows that Brazilian exports grew by 5.6% in the moving quarter ended in January, compared to the same period last year. The components of agricultural services and products contributed to the result, which presented positive rates of 15% and 28.6%, respectively. In the analysis of the seasonally adjusted series, however, exports decreased by 0.6 in the moving quarter ended in January compared to the one ended in October.
Imports also increased by 2.2% in the moving quarter ended in January compared to the same period last year. It is worth noting the 10.5% growth in imports of services and the high growth in mineral extraction (54.1%). In the seasonally adjusted series, imports rose 1.2% in the moving quarter ended in January, compared to the one ended in October.
The GDP Monitor monthly estimates the Brazilian GDP in volume and value. It was created to provide society with a monthly indicator of GDP, based on the same methodology as the National Accounts of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
