Russian foreign policy expert, Ivan Ulysses Kentros Klyszczestimated that the role of Nicaragua, in the current tense situation between Moscow and Washington, is to be a mere instrument of “provocation” towards the American power.
Interviewed on the show Tonight —broadcast on Facebook and YouTube due to censorship by the Ortega regime— Kentros said that if the crisis in Ukraine escalates into a military conflict between Russia and the West, the countries in Latin America aligned with Moscow “will have to weigh the serious diplomatic consequences” and even economic to maintain these political and ideological ties.
On the night of Wednesday, February 23, Russia began its large-scale military operations in Ukraine, with artillery and missile bombardment, in addition to the landing of infantry. The first reports on the morning of this Thursday, is that the attacks have already left more than 50 Ukrainian dead.
Vladimir Putin’s regime recently launched a diplomatic offensive in the region by sending his deputy prime minister, Yuri Borisov, on official visits to Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, to sign cooperation agreements in economic and military matters.
No details were given about the agreements signed between the Daniel Ortega regime and Russia during Borisov’s visit. The Russian official limited himself to indicating that he was seeking to triple the commercial exchange between Nicaragua and Russia, and that military cooperation with the Nicaraguan Army would be strengthened.
Ortega, for his part, raised the tone of his speech in favor of Russia’s position in the conflict with Ukraine, to the point that supported the entry into that country of Russian military forces to support pro-Russian rebels who declared the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk territories in eastern Ukraine.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov visited his allies in Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela, amid the tensions of an armed conflict in Ukraine between Russia and the West. What does this visit symbolize?
Yuri Borisov’s visit is part of Russia’s foreign policy towards Latin America in general. For several years, Moscow has considered that its allies in Latin America function as a mirror of the United States’ presence in Eastern Europe. The geographical proximity of Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela to US territory has given Moscow the idea that these countries can function as a platform for a policy of confrontation closer to US territory. At the current juncture, this visit has an important symbolic element: Moscow effectively communicates that it has various resources to respond to US policy in Eastern Europe and, in particular, in Ukraine.
And what interest does Russia have, especially in Nicaragua?
Nicaragua has stood out as a receptive country of Russia, in particular the Administration of President Daniel Ortega. In a way, he has benefited from Russia’s foreign policy, from Moscow’s willingness to cooperate with his government to break out of diplomatic isolation with the world, beyond Latin America. Moscow with Nicaragua wants to gain a broader presence in the Caribbean and, in particular, in Central America, where it has had difficulty expanding its diplomatic presence. Other than that, Nicaragua cannot offer a military-type strategic platform, so far. Although there were several developments in that direction, such as anti-narcotics cooperation between Moscow and Nicaragua. Perhaps in the future we can see more cooperation in other security areas or perhaps more in the military field.
Is Ortega’s political alignment with Putin, in the midst of this conflict in Ukraine, limited to a provocation towards the United States, or does Putin expect something more from Nicaragua and Ortega??
It is undoubtedly a provocation to the United States Government. I think that Putin is indeed hopeful that Nicaragua would be able to provide some symbolic support, at least to the independence aspirations of these two rebellious regions of Ukraine. Nicaragua has already contributed with this in the past. For example, in 2020 it opened a consulate in Crimea. Perhaps what Putin hopes is that Nicaragua will make a similar diplomatic maneuver, perhaps even recognize the republics or other maneuvers as well.
In Ortega’s meeting with Borísov, it was assured that they signed commercial and economic agreements, and it was announced that they would also reinforce technological and military cooperation with the Nicaraguan Army. What are the scope of this cooperation?
In the past, there have been transfers of military equipment and defense systems with Nicaragua. For example, combat tanks, among others. It is difficult to say, at this point, in what kind of spheres—of military activity—the Nicaraguan government wishes to see a greater Russian presence. The Nicaraguan government probably hopes to expand its military capabilities through cooperation with Russia, but I don’t know to what extent Russian influence could enter the strategic commands of the Nicaraguan Armed Forces.
In recent months we have seen the strengthening of diplomatic relations and cooperation between Managua and the Kremlin. Would Russia be willing to install military espionage bases in Nicaragua?
Certainly. Today there are already suspicions of certain facilities with which Russia has been present in Nicaragua, such as facilities for the fight against drug trafficking, training of police forces and satellite facilities. Already with this infrastructure there is a presence in Nicaragua, in certain aspects that can contribute to Russian intelligence. On the other hand, if Nicaragua is interested in expanding its cooperation with Russia, it would be interested in expanding the range of collaboration options with Russian intelligence that it already has, starting from Nicaraguan territory.
The United States and the European Union have issued sanctions against Russia in recent days and it is expected that as tension in Ukraine increases or grows, there will be more sanctions. Could that affect the ties and relations between Russia and Nicaragua?
I would say no. The sanctions that the European Union and the United States and other countries are imposing on Russia do not jeopardize cooperation between Russia and Nicaragua, for the time being. This will also depend on which sectors are going to be involved in these sanctions, because in any case, they can affect some of the sectors in which cooperation takes place. For example, if it affects the military sector, see if this will affect the ability to cooperate between Nicaragua and Russia.
What repercussions would a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine have on Russia’s allied countries in Latin America, such as Nicaragua?
Above all, it would force Russia’s allied countries in Latin America to reflect on the objectives they achieve through their collaboration with Russia. For example, it may happen that a major conflict between Ukraine, Russia and the West would make any collaboration with Russia too costly in terms of diplomacy, international relations, and in terms of economic ties. It is difficult to predict what kind of impact there would be, but it would certainly make collaboration with any of these countries very difficult.
