He economist Haivanjoe Ng Cortiñas considered that the economy Dominican Republic, according to the data observed as of October of this year, accumulates a growth of 5.1%, but projects that the gross domestic product (GDP) could reach 5.3% by the end of the year, with “chiaroscuro” indicators.
When evaluating the performance economic 2024, explained that, as happens with balance sheets, the results have bright and dark points, and the Dominican Republic is no exception in terms of what is going wrong and what is going well.
In a press release, he pointed out that these contrasts have impacts on the population and agents economical in the Dominican Republic.
“According to our forecastthe economy reaches your growth potential and manages, in turn, to meet the goal of growthand even with a positive deviation, which is a clear point, recovering from the setback of the slowdown in GDP in 2023, which was 2.4%,” he stressed.
However, the economist pointed out that the dark point of performance of GDP in 2024 is that the sector miner continues to have a rate of negative mobility (as of October, -5.4%), tourism lost intensity growth registering 6.0%, when last year it was almost 11.0%. In addition, local manufacturing, as well as construction, present lower results than in 2023.
Ng Cortiñas He went on to say that, in terms of inflationthe goal will be met by registering a level less than 4.0% annually. In contrast, high rice prices show a increase about 15.0%, red beans almost 14.0%, and chocolate 19.0%.
“With regard to the rate monetary, despite repeated decreases from June 2023 to December 2024, interest rates interest banking institutions do not respond downwards, as they should, and on the contrary remain in a level high, as is the case of the weighted average asset, which in December the price of bank money was over 15.0%. This reflects a null pass-through effect, caused by the low level liquidity in the economywhich translates into less circulation than programmed, by almost 5 percentage points,” he explained.
Public sector debt
He pointed out that a topic nuanced only by the “dark side” is the sector debt public non-financial, which at the end of 2023 had a balance of 54,829 million dollars, equivalent to 45.1% of GDP.
For the first 11 months of 2024, it stands at 57,437 million dollars, with a pressure on the GDP of 46.1%. This means an increase of 2,608 million dollars in the balance of the debt and a increase of 1.0 percentage point of GDP.
He argued that, on the balance side fiscalthere persists a deficit similar to that of 2023, indicative of no improvement for 2024, which is about to conclude, reaching RD$ 231 billion, 3.11% of GDP. This level It is higher than that recorded pre-pandemic, in 2019, when it was around 2.3% of GDP.
He economist argued that, as to the spent public of capital, the central government has only allocated 11.58% of the spent total as of December 13, 2024, lower than the 13.6% contemplated in the current budget.
“This metric reflects the loss of relative importance of said spent. Furthermore, it could indicate a lower participation in the performance economic of the current year, as well as a loss in the quality of the spentas a smaller proportion is allocated to increasing assets publicto the self-sustainability of spent and financing through debt,” he said.
About public spending
Ng Cortiñas He added that, regarding the quality of the expense publicthe component of spent social, aimed at the lowest income sectors, stood at 44.5% as of December 6, 2024, a level lower than previous years, when it reached 46.0%. This may be indicative of a decrease in quality of the spent public.
He said that, in the economy external, the account current of the balance of payments for the first 9 months of 2024 shows an improvement, registering a deficit of 2,754 million dollars, lower by 730 million compared to the same period in 2023, when it reached 3,484 million.
“The counterweight is represented by the position of net international investment, which shows a greater deterioration than in 2023, placing it at a level greater than 72,384 million dollars, which shows that the liabilities exceed financial assets“he continued saying Ng Cortiñas.
He pointed out that, with respect to the reservations international net, although these stand at US$ 13,085 million as of November 2024, equivalent to 10.8% of GDP (in line with the parameters international), register an amount lower than that of January of the current year (US$ 14,360 million) and that of the same month in 2023 (US$ 15,044 million). This reflects a deterioration and explains, in part, the little liquidity in Dominican pesos, by allocating part of the foreign currency to market exchange local.
As for the market exchangespecified that the exchange rate showed a depreciation of 5.0% in the third week of December 2024 and 6.24% annualized. Although it is within the projection of the macroeconomic framework (6.73%), maintaining this exchange rate managed by the Central Bank has implied a sacrifice of no less than US$ 1,275 million of the reservations international.
He stated that, level social, the level of poverty general monetary employment was reduced to 19.0% of the population, lower than the 24.4% recorded on the same date in 2023. “This behavior is eclipsed by the increase in informal employment, which stands at 55.0% of the total, when as of December 2023 was 51.0%,” he said.
Upon completion of your balance sheet economy Dominican Republic of 2024, Ng Cortiñas stated that, without a doubt, the performance It can be classified as “chiaroscuro”. This situation represents a great challenge for the government, since the failed reform fiscal could further slow down the spent of capital and reduce the expectations of the sector private. This occurs in an international context marked by the uncertainty generated by the next president of the United States, Donald Trump, who will be sworn in on January 20, 2025 and has shown positions of nationalism. economic.
