The phrase “is the economy, stupid” is attributed to Bill Clinton, Democratic candidate in 1992. He used it against George Hw Bush (father), who was the president of the United States. 33 years have passed and the phrase is still in force: it is the economy.
From the hand of Wikipedia, the fact that the phrase was not a Clintonian occurrence, but part of a strategy designed by James Carville to concentrate on issues more related to “the daily life of citizens and their most immediate needs and their most immediate needs.” That daily life, in which the economy plays such a relevant role, was the one that stopped Donald Trump for 90 days and his aggressive tariff policy.
“You have to be flexible,” Trump argued to try to justify his defeat. A defeat that was caused by the world fall of the bags, the mass protests that flooded the streets of the United States, the capital escape, the erosion of the conservative block in the congress and the disagreement of many billionaires that were affected. Yes, it is the economy.
Trumpian medicine aggravated the disease and 90 -day postposition will very possibly mean that other less harmful measures will be taken. This does not mean that it will leave their moods behind, simply that it will apply them in more directed doses. In the article last week we talk about the logic behind the apparent madness of the actions of the White House resident.
First, it was pointed out that Trump’s speech and actions were aimed at his followers, willing to believe in false data and absurd statements. But it turns out that this narrative crashed into the shortage, the nervousness of the markets, the affectation of medical, educational and retirement services. Normally, when there is a struggle between narrative and real life, the latter usually succeeds. This was the case.
Secondly, I highlighted that the strongest barrage of measures was directed against Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Cambodia, etc.). This is still partially in force. Now only China maintains a 145% tariff in its products that arrive in the United States. In essence, the tariff war is a war against China, which for various causes is displacing our commercial partner in the economic and technological field.
I noted that the second tuned was against the European Union that, in the midst of divisions, prepared to respond to American tariffs. Now, he has given them a truce that they have hugged quickly. Of course, the threat is not over. Trump considers that Europe has taken advantage of the United States and does not fulfill its military commitments and the reciprocity that a nuclear umbrella should provide.
With Canada and Mexico, things are still the same as last week, with the aggravating thing that the secretaries of the orange man are not usually well informed of what their boss will decide. The only difference is that President Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on Mexican products that arrive in the United States, or some other types of sanctions, if the Mexican government persists in not complying with the delivery of waters of the Rio Bravo to the state of Texas.
Of course, the alarms were lit in the Mexican government and the “fantastic woman”, as Claudia Sheinbaum called the White House inhabitant, said that: “Yesterday was sent to the Undersecretary of the United States Department of State a comprehensive proposal to meet the sending of water to Texas within the 1944 treaty, which includes very short -term actions.” The president is confident that an agreement will be reached. We will have to see if the waters calm.
Returning to the issue of world tariffs, the American government strategy is finally clear: to isolate China as much as possible. To do this, not only has he imposed some very high tariffs, but it is possible that he begins to press the countries that trade with the Asian nation. With Mexico this strategy has already paid fruits. This no longer resembles a commercial strategy but to the prelude to a conflict that could climb. The Chinese government has assured that any type of war will answer to the United States.
With the 90 -day pause, the bags had an ephemeral recovery. It will already be seen if the mastered moods of the tycoon are placked by contemplating the effects of their policies on the daily life of the Americans.
And yes, “it’s the economy, stupid.”
