It is curious to see the level of superficiality, or misinformation, with which this phenomenon has been seen in our country. Calling different governments left or right, without being clear about what these concepts mean, or even if they continue to have any meaning.
It is also noteworthy, particularly among the most “critical” commentators of the 4T, the trivial way in which they have celebrated these supposed right-wing victories, without showing any understanding of either the context of each country or the characters who are achieving these victories.
Of course, not to mention the evident lack of understanding of Latin American political dynamics, since at least the middle of the last century, and especially the first quarter of the current century. Nor about Mexico’s differences with those dynamics.
It is urgent in Mexico to study a little more if the country has been oblivious, in tune, at the forefront or at the rear of the dynamics of the region. This is key to any “prediction,” and it is not that difficult.
During the first half of the 20th century, there was great social and political instability in the region. It was normal, after the independence processes of the previous century, and the consequent challenges to bring together and organize societies under such a different reality.
Mexico started the century with the last part of a dictatorship, and the outbreak of the first great social revolution of the century, even before the Russian one. Practically the first quarter of the century was spent in these phenomena, with a great division and atomization of society.
In the post-revolutionary stage, the hegemonic party system began, which sought (successfully) to bring together segments of society, build an urgent sense of national identity, develop the institutional construction of the country, and detonate economic activity and growth.
It should be noted that this entire process occurred without the hegemonic party subscribing to a specific ideology, but rather through agendas and causes embodied in the different governments.
During this stage, much of Latin America took a very different path, with constant coups d’état, military dictatorships, guerrilla movements and profound populism.
From Central America to Patagonia, the region went through decades of political, social and economic instability. Sometimes conservative governments, sometimes liberal, and populism.
Since the beginning of the post-revolutionary era in our country, the PRI governed much closer socially to what was called the left; pragmatic and orthodox in economic matters, with stabilizing development.
Towards the 70s, the hegemon lost its way both socially and economically, moving in the 80s and 90s towards a more modern vision of the economy, although at times losing the social vision. Getting closer to the conservative range. Starting in 2000, we delved into the conservative.
Latin America was achieving stability starting in the 1980s, with key moments of democratization and progress in the 1990s. Although the lags of dictatorships and instability have been long-lasting.
In the 2000s, while Mexico moved to the right with the alternation, a leftist wave began in Latin America, much of it pseudo-left. Supposedly social and protest movements in some cases. And lashes against the remnants of dictatorships in others.
By 2006, the different paths between Mexico and the region became much more evident. With important poles reaffirming the leftist tendency, while Mexico deepened the conservative tendency.
This continued until 2012, with the return of a government emanating from the PRI, but totally far from the principles and values of the party, especially in the social part.
Between 2012 and 2018, in Latin America the deterioration of several supposedly leftist governments began, with significant shifts to the right in some of them.
Meanwhile, in Mexico we left the conservative path in 2018 with the overwhelming victory of AMLO, who established himself as a catalyst for the historic leftist struggles. Although clearly he was not a man of the left, but many of his followers and companions were.
At the same time, extreme right-wing governments were strengthening in some Latin American countries, but left-wing currents also began to re-emerge in others. That is to say, the region became more mixed.
In Mexico, the 4T was forcefully reaffirmed with the electoral victory of 2024. With a President much closer to the left than her predecessor, although also with certain overtones of centralization and authoritarianism.
This whole journey comes to mind, because the public debate in Mexico on this issue is far from being serious. With the easy argument that some governments in the region are returning to the right, several want to make it believe that this wave will reach Mexico.
