Inflation in Colombia once again registered a slight increase in its annual variation. Although in September 2025 The data stood at 5.18%, that is, 0.63 percentage points less than what was reported in the same period of the previous year (5.81%), with this being three months in which slight increases have been reported.
(Read more: Inflation in Colombia closed September at 5.18% in its annual variation)
The result is in line with analysts’ projections, which indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was going to continue accelerating. In fact, Most forecasts placed the figure in a range between 5.14% and 5.20%, which is quite close to that recorded at the end of 2024.
According to Jackeline Piraján, chief economist Scotiabank Colpatria, the most recent CPI data shows that this process in which it was beginning to show better signs has stopped and is even being reversed. But what is driving it?
Those who contributed the most
The expert points out that, when we see how the month behaved, We can highlight that half of the inflation was explained by two groups. The first, the price of accommodation and public services, which again showed an acceleration in rentals and some strong variations in the prices of electricity rates, and the second, in the education division.
In the case of food, a category that usually provides greater impetus to the data, Piraján highlights that the report shows that Throughout the ninth month of the year, prices remained under control.
“We had a relatively modest inflation with a contribution of three basis points to the total inflation, showing that there are some important pressures on the prices of fresh fruits, as has been recurring throughout the year and in some prices such as meat. And although we had closures on important roads in the country due to climatic issues, the truth is that the impact on general food prices was felt, but in a quite moderate way and below what we had initially assumed,” indicates.
Another fact that draws attention is associated with the information and communication category, since the prices of telephone and telecommunications services presented their greatest variation since 2020.
(Read more: This is the ideal value that the minimum wage should have in 2026, according to AI)
Inflation
EFE
“Let us remember that at that time we had the participation of relevant competitive agents in the market that had promoted price stability and we saw that this stability began to be broken this month. With all this, we see that annual inflation, as we had previously commented, is accelerating”adds the expert.
In fact, the economist highlights that, even excluding some measurements such as foodsthe average figure in its annual variation is 4.94%.
In this context of slight acceleration, he mentions that the Bank of the Republic will face a challenge. In particular, when deciding whether or not to resume the reductions in its intervention rate. “There are no arguments at this time to be able to consider comfortable cuts in the interest rate and, on the contrary, the expectation is extended that we will have a prolonged pause even until the middle of next year”he points out.
Regarding forecasts, Scotiabank projects that inflation this year could close to around 5.20% and the Banrep rate will end 2025 at 9.25%, that is, it will remain at its current level.
(Read more: The Colombian economy would live with high interest rates for several more months)
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