In October last year, a survey conducted by Ipsos for Peru21 revealed that the presidential candidate for Peru Primero, Mario Vizcarraranked second on the list of candidates with the highest voting intention; In the measurement a month before, 71% of voters who leaned towards his candidacy did so in the belief of supporting his brother Martín, currently imprisoned in the Barbadillo prison for a 14-year prison sentence for the crime of corruption. This confusion seems to be dissipating.
Starting this electoral year, Ipsos—in its first national survey carried out on January 7 and 8—not only records the drop of Mario Vizcarra from third place in December to sixth place in the list of voting intentions, but also confirms that it is a sustained drop over time since October when it reached its highest level with 8%.
Since then it has been in decline, and this month it is located below Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular (10%), Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular (7%), Carlos Álvarez of País para Todos, who regains third place in the preferences with 4%; Alfonso López Chau, from Ahora Nación, and George Forsyth, from Somos Perú, each with 3%.
With one foot out
And this occurs at a time when his candidacy for Peru Primero, both for the Presidency and the Senate, hangs by a thread. The Special Electoral Jury Lima Centro 1 and Lima Centro 2, respectively, have declared his candidacy inadmissible due to a final conviction for the crime of embezzlement. This fact, according to the Organic Law of Elections and the Constitution itself, constitutes an “insurmountable impediment” to its continuity in the electoral race. The issue will be clarified today in the National Elections Jury.
Anticipating an adverse scenario for Vizcarra, the Ipsos study also asked respondents from urban and rural areas to which candidate they would endorse their votes if he ultimately could not run. The main ones mentioned were George Forsyth, César Acuña from Alianza para el Progreso, José Luna Gálvez from Podemos, José Williams from Avanza País and Roberto Sánchez from Together for Peru.
Meanwhile, Forsyth leaves the other category and appears in fifth place above Vizcarra despite not having started his campaign.
Likewise, regarding the study carried out by Ipsos in the second half of December, it is noted that César Acuña drops from 3% to 2%, which is also recorded by others such as José Luna and the fugitive Vladimir Cerrón.
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