Economic projections show risks. The Foreign Relations Council estimates that US exports could be reduced by 15%, while Think Tank Atlantic Council estimates that Mexican exports would fall by 10%.
Regarding the impact on GDP, various qualifiers and financial institutions anticipate that Mexico can contract between 1% and 4%, while Oxford Economics estimates that the growth of the United States would be reduced by 0.7 percentage points due to tariffs .
Despite the temporal suspension, the possibility that Trump reactivates the measure remains latent.
Democrat’s complaint
The announcement of tariffs caused immediate reactions by Democratic governors in the United States. The governor of Arizona, Katie Hobbs, warned: “I hope the President will reconsider this hurried action that could have a devastating impact on the economy of our state.”
Arizona is the seventh state that matters most from Mexico, with almost 12,000 million dollars in 2023, according to data from the United States Foreign Trade Department. Its main purchases include agri -food products, with an approximate value of 3,300 million.
The governor of Michigan also expressed concern, noting that the last thing families need is an increase in costs. “This middle class increase will paralyze our economy, harm the workers and consumers of the automotive industry, will increase the prices of cars, food and energy, and will put countless jobs at risk.”
Michigan is the second state that most important Mexican products, with a total of 69,022 million dollars, of which more than 37,000 million correspond to vehicles and auto parts.
The governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker, also spoke against the measure. “Let’s call it by name: Trump’s tax on working families.”
Illinois is the fourth state with the highest volume of imports from Mexico, with 18,257 million dollars, highlighting alcoholic beverages, whose value amounts to almost 6,000 million.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul emphasized the high cost of living and criticized Trump’s decision. “I am fighting to return the money to the pockets of the New Yorkers. But now the Republican party wants to impose a new tax of 1.2 billion dollars to consumers. We do not need an undercover tax disguised as tariff. ”
The governor of Minnesota also agreed that tariffs represent an economic blow to the working class. “While Trump increases prices, I propose the first cut of the sales tax rate in the history of our state to help the inhabitants of Minnesota to fall for the storm.”
New York and Minnesota occupy places 24 and 25, respectively, in the ranking of the states that matter most from Mexico.
Business support and commercial integration
Mexico and Canada found support in US businessmen and industries. The Texas Business Association, part of the United States Chamber of Commerce, stressed the importance of the T-MEC, agreement negotiated by Trump himself:
“The T-MEC is the best commercial agreement in history. He has promoted record growth in commerce and employment in Texas. In 2023 alone, Texas exported more than 491,000 million dollars in goods, of which more than half correspond to Mexico and Canada. Tariffs threaten this success. Instead of disturbing trade, we should redouble efforts to modernize infrastructure, ensure supply chains and keep Texas such as the commercial power of North America. ”
Although the Governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, is a Trump ally, the private sector rejects the tariff measure. Texas is the main importer of Mexican products in the United States, with purchases that reached 142,733 million dollars, mainly in computer equipment, auto parts and cars.
The Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, after the announcement of the temporary suspension of tariffs, reaffirmed Mexico’s commitment to commercial integration:
“Mexico will defend integration with the United States because it is what suits.”
