The Institute of Meteorology of Cuba foresees the formation of 11 tropical cyclones and 5 hurricanes in a season classified as normal to not very active.
Specialists consider that of the 11 tropical cyclones, 7 can form in the Atlantic Ocean, 2 in the Caribbean Sea and 2 in the Gulf of Mexico.
Close to the beginning of this stage, which occupies special attention within the island, the scientific center foresees a 35% probability that Cuba will be affected by at least one tropical cyclone with hurricane category.
??? Forecast of the cyclonic activity of 2023 for the North Atlantic… A normal to little active cyclonic season is expected… we will continue to expand the information..!! READY AND ALERTS!!@citmacuba @AMA_CUBA @re pic.twitter.com/96O1LmTkdq
— INSMET Cuba (METEOROLOGY) (@InsmetC) May 11, 2023
The surface temperature of the sea was warmer than normal between January and March in the tropical strip of the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, a situation that may continue to favor the formation and development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.
The probability of formation and intensification of at least one hurricane in the Caribbean is 45%, and the perspective for the penetration of a hurricane of Atlantic origin is moderate (40%).
According to the Insmet, an update of the forecast of cyclonic activity for the year 2023 in the North Atlantic will be issued on August 1.
Last season concluded with a total of 14 tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) in the region.
In that period Eight hurricanes named Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Ian, Julia, Lisa, Martin and Nicole formed, of which only Fiona and Ian became very intense.
The last hurricane that severely affected western Cuba was Ian in September 2022. In this part of the national territory, it severely affected agriculture after heavy rains and winds that reached up to 200 kilometers per hour.
The phenomenon left 21,259 hectares damaged, mainly in the provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Mayabeque and to a lesser extent Havana, according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture.
A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system formed in the oceans, accompanied by a wide area of clouds, rains, showers, electrical storms.
