Corficolombiana’s economic outlook report for 2023 mentions, among other things, that from January to mid-year there will be a gradual decrease in annual inflation, which would stay above 10%but the greatest disinflation would become evident in the second semester and at the end of the year it will close at 7.6%.
(Read: It’s official: the day without VAT on December 2 fell).
The report says that if this forecast comes to fruition, CColombia will have the highest inflation rate in 2023 of comparable countries in the region.
This will mean that the report mentions that the Banco de la República, after bringing your reference rate to 12% or 12.5%, you will have little room to cut rates next year. Said rate cut window would only open if, externally, the combination of growth and inflation allowed the central banks of developed countries to reduce their rates in the second half of next year and in the case of Colombia the issuer would leave its rate at 8%.
(In addition: The fall in the dollar is not enough to reach minimum prices for the year).
He mentions that added to the lower growth, the recent gains in the labor market will be unlikely to be sustained. While job creation lagged behind the rapid recovery in economic activity, the economy this year regained the jobs it had before the pandemic.
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