The Inflation stood at 4.55% in November its lowest level since last March, and is expected to close the year above 4%.
Inflation has been off target since April 2021 and is expected to remain that way until 2026. This is the longest inflationary period in Mexico’s recent history.
Banxico itself has estimated that reaching the 3% inflation goal will take more than a year and it will not be until the third quarter of 2026 when inflation reaches those levels.
Banxico’s strategy to control inflation
The central bank has the constitutional mandate to maintain inflation at levels of 3% and to achieve this it uses monetary policy.
After having raised the interest rate to 11.25% in 2023, in March of this year the movements began in the face of declining inflation.
The factors that most influenced
But given the drought, recorded in the second quarter of the year, inflation rose due to the increase in the cost of some foods, especially fruits and vegetables.
One of the first victims of the drought was cilantro and chayote. In June, a 5 kilo bunch of cilantro sold for up to 900 pesos when before the price was 300.
In the case of chayote, a kilo of this vegetable became more expensive by up to 114%. As the months passed, other products such as papaya, tomato and onion joined the list of foods that became more expensive.
Inflation in Mexico in 2025
Analysts and the Bank of Mexico itself estimate that inflation will not reach the target until 2026. For the following year, prices could be on average between 3.3% and 3.8%.
The central bank highlights that the Mexican economy faces upward risks to inflation, especially with the arrival of Donald Trump to the presidency.
Banxico lists the depreciation of the exchange rate, climatic effects, persistence of underlying inflation and disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts and trade policies as the main risk factors.
______
Do you want your business to grow? In this episode of Cuéntame de Economía they give you some recommendations
______
