The inflation index that is part of the calculation of the annual minimum wage adjustment closed November at 0.33%, reaching 4.84% in the 12-month period. Data relating to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) were released this Tuesday (10), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The minimum wage for 2024 is R$1,412. For 2025, the readjustment rule in force determines that the value undergoes two corrections. One is for the 12-month INPC accumulated until November of the previous year, 2024. That is, 4.84%.
The second correction is the growth of the economy two years earlier, in this case, 2023. On the 3rd, the IBGE revised the data on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, set of goods and services produced in the country) for 2023, going from 2 .9% to 3.2%.
According to this rule, the minimum wage in 2025 would be R$1,527.71. With the rounding provided by law, the value increases to R$1.528. Adjustment of 8.22%.
New rule
However, at the beginning of the month, the government sent Bill (PL) 4614/24 to the Chamber of Deputies, which is part of a cost-cutting package. The text seeks to adjust expenses linked to the minimum wage to the limits of the so-called fiscal framework – a mechanism that controls the evolution of public spending. In this way, the minimum wage would continue to have a gain above inflation, but limited to a range between 0.6% and 2.5%.
The government’s intention is to approve the bill in 2024, so that the new way of adjusting the minimum wage takes effect in 2025. On the 4th, the Chamber plenary approved that the text be processed urgently, which speeds up the discussion.
If the matter is approved, the minimum wage would receive two corrections: the 4.84% of the INPC plus 2.5%. Thus, the value would be R$ 1,517.34. With rounding, R$1,518, adjustment of 7.51% and final value R$10 lower than the current rule.
The government’s justification for changing the adjustment formula is to reduce expenses that have the minimum wage as a floor, such as social security benefits, unemployment insurance and salary bonuses.
“The bill is essential to dispel uncertainties that affect asset prices in the Brazilian economy, ensuring resilience to fiscal rules, while ensuring greater fiscal space for discretionary expenses with strong multiplier effects, such as public investments”, he explains. the government in the message accompanying the project.
Revision
Whether or not the project is approved, the government will have to review calculations, as the PL Annual Budget for 2025 – sent to the National Congress on August 30 – estimated an adjustment of 6.87% for the minimum wage, which would increase it to R$1,509.
The percentage of 6.87% was made up of 3.82% – INPC forecast – plus 2.91% – 2023 GDP growth before being revised by IBGE.
INPC x IPCA
The INPC known this Tuesday is always released in parallel with another IBGE index, the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), commonly called official inflation. The difference between the two is that the INPC calculates the variation in the cost of living for families with an income of up to five minimum wages. As for the IPCA, up to 40 minimum wages.
The IPCA closed November at 0.39% and accumulates 4.87% in 12 months.
Understand the different inflation indices.
