After two consecutive months of deflation, the Extended National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), the month’s inflation preview for October, rose 0.16%. In the year, the indicator accumulates a high of 4.80% and 6.85% in the last 12 months. The 6.14% decline in fuel prices influenced the result as it has in recent months. The figures were released today (25), in Rio de Janeiro, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Among the groups, only Transport (-0.64%), Communication (-0.42%) and Household Articles (-0.35%) fell in October. In Transport, the reason for the drop is related to the retraction in the prices of the four fuels: ethanol (-9.47%), gasoline (-5.92%), diesel oil (-3.52%) and vehicular gas (- 1.33%). According to the IBGE, the greatest negative impact among the IPCA-15 sub-items came from gasoline, with a rise of 0.29 percentage point (pp).
The survey also indicated that the drop in Transport is below the one noted in the previous month, when it fell by 2.35%. The biggest individual positive impact (0.18 pp) in October was caused by airline tickets, which increased 28.17%, while in September they had risen 8.20%. The 12% readjustments in Fortaleza, as of September 1st; and 5% in Porto Alegre, as of October 4, contributed to the increase in intercity buses (0.42%), in addition to increases in license plates (1.72%) and car repair (0.64 %). These two sub-items are of great weight in the group.
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Also according to the survey, the Health and Personal Care group (0.10 pp) was the one that caused the greatest impact among discharges. Mainly influenced by the increase in health plans (1.44%), prices rose 0.80% in October. “This acceleration was influenced by readjustments authorized by the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS) in health plans contracted before Law No. 9,656/98 and with retroactive effect since July. The increase in the prices of personal hygiene items (1.10%) also influenced the rise in the group”, informed the IBGE.
Clothing registered the biggest change (1.43%) among the groups. The highlights were the hikes of footwear and accessories (1.82%), children’s clothing (1.71%) and jewelry (1%). Men’s clothing (1.54%) and women’s clothing (0.98%) showed a deceleration compared to the previous month.
According to the IBGE, the increase in Food and Beverages (0.21%), a group that had retreated in September, also explains the return of the general index to the positive field. Influenced by the increase in the prices of fruits (4.61%), potatoes (20.11%), tomatoes (6.25%) and onions (5.86%), food at home rose 0. 14%. On the other hand, long-life milk (-9.91%), soy oil (-3.71%) and meats (0.56%) recorded falls in prices.
Food away from home increased from 0.59% in September to 0.37% in October. There was an increase in the meal of 0.44% in October, while in September it had been 0.36%. However, the snack, which had a variation of 0.94% in prices in September, slowed down and registered a high of 0.23% in October.
With the increase of 0.07% in electricity, the Housing group had a rise of 0.28%. “With Complementary Law 194/22, transmission and distribution services were removed from the calculation base of the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) in some states. But cases were identified in which charging continued and, in the October IPCA-15, adjustments were made to compensate for the withdrawal of ICMS, in order to account in the standard account what was charged from consumers”, said the IBGE.
He added that, voluntarily, some concessionaires also decided to remove transmission and distribution services from the ICMS tax base. “This was taken into account in the standard account, which, in these cases, has these services removed from the tax calculation base”, he indicated.
The rate of water and sewage was another, within the indicator, which increased (0.39%). The result was impacted by the average adjustment of 13.22% applied to one of the concessionaires in Porto Alegre (3.36%) at the end of September.
Regions
The October IPCA-15 also showed that nine of the 11 areas surveyed had inflation in October. “The biggest change was registered in Brasília (0.56%), with the impact of the increase in air ticket prices (37.59%), and the smallest, in Curitiba (-0.24%), influenced by the fall in the gasoline (-6.58%)”.
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According to the IBGE, the difference between the IPCA-15 and the IPCA, which is the official indicator of inflation in the country, is related only to the collection period and geographic coverage. To calculate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from September 15 to October 13, 2022 (reference) and compared with those in effect from August 13 to September 14, 2022 (base).
“The IPCA-15 refers to families with incomes from one to 40 minimum wages, whatever the source, residing in the metropolitan regions of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, in addition to the Federal District and the municipality of Goiânia”, concluded the IBGE.
