The country’s official inflation preview for July was 0.30%, lower than June’s 0.39%. The National Broad Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), released this Thursday (25) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), showed that the biggest variation, of 1.12%, and the biggest impact, of 0.23 percentage points, came from the Transportation group, followed by Housing (0.49% and 0.07 pp) and Health and Personal Care (0.33% and 0.05 pp).
According to the IBGE, in 12 months, the variation of the IPCA-15 reached 4.45%, a level higher than the 4.06% recorded in the same period immediately before. In July 2023, the rate fell by 0.07%.
The survey used to calculate the IPCA-15 also indicated that seven of the nine groups of products and services analyzed grew in July. In contrast, the Food and Beverages group fell by 0.44%, and the Clothing group fell by 0.08%.
Within the Food and Beverage group, a major contributor to the 0.44% reduction in July was home-cooked meals, which fell 0.70%. This result was driven by the declines in carrots (21.60%), tomatoes (17.94%), onions (7.89%) and fruits (2.88%). The highlights on the rise were long-life milk (2.58%) and ground coffee (2.54%).
The 0.25% increase in eating out meant a slowdown compared to June, when it was 0.59%. The explanation for the drop in pace, according to the IBGE, is the less intense increases in snacks, from 0.80% in June to 0.24% in July, and in meals, from 0.51% in June to 0.23% in July.
In the Housing group, which advanced 0.49%, the influence was residential electricity with a variation of 1.20% and an impact of 0.05 pp.
“In July, the yellow tariff flag came into effect, adding R$1.885 to every 100 kWh consumed. The increase was also influenced by the following tariff adjustments: 6.76% in Belo Horizonte (3.40%), starting on May 28; and -2.43% in one of the concessionaires in São Paulo (0.42%), starting on July 4,” noted the IBGE.
Another influence on Housing was the 0.22% increase in water and sewage rates. The increase is due to tariff adjustments of 9.85% in Brasília (5.02%), starting on June 1st; and 2.95% in Curitiba (0.09%), starting on May 17th. “In the piped gas subitem (-0.28%), the result in Rio de Janeiro (-0.93%) is due to an average reduction of 1.75%, starting on June 1st”, points out the IBGE.
The 19.21% increase in airfares impacted the Transport group and contributed 0.12 pp to the July indicator. Fuels (1.39%), gasoline (1.43%), ethanol (1.78%) and diesel (0.09%) also increased, but vehicle gas fell by 0.25%.
Regions
Among the regions, ten areas of coverage recorded an increase in the month. The largest was in Brasília (0.61%), as a result of increases in airfare (13.68%), water and sewage rates (5.02%) and gasoline (2.94%). Recife was responsible for the lowest result (-0.05%). There, the influence on performance was the fall in the prices of tomatoes (-37.13%) and carrots (-28.27%).
IPCA-15
According to the IBGE, the methodology used to calculate the IPCA-15 is the same as the IPCA. The difference lies in the period in which prices are collected and the geographic scope.
For this month’s result, prices were collected from June 15 to July 15 (reference) and compared with those in effect from May 16 to June 14 (base).
“The indicator refers to families with an income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the metropolitan regions of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasília and the city of Goiânia”, informs the IBGE.
