Inflation does not give truce and although prices no longer rise with the force of a year ago, September would confirm that the cost of living remains a sensitive issue for homes, especially from the country As energy and leases, they still weigh in the pocket of millions of Colombians.
The first thing to say is that according to the most recent data of the DANE on the Producer Price Index (IPP), the costs in national production rose again in this month, especially in the agricultural sector, which anticipates pressures on inflation to the consumer that will be known tomorrow.
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Likewise, banks such as Bancolombia and Itaú analysts agree that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could present A slight monthly and annual acceleration, breaking the stability that had been achieved in recent months.
A rebound from the field
According to the DANE, the IPP increased 0.51% in September, after several months of marginal variations, and accumulates 0.02% at the run of the year. In the last twelve months, the variation was 3.63%, a low figure compared to the 2023 peaks, but which reflects a reactivation of production costs.
The September IPC data will be important for the decisions of the Bank of the Republic.
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It is worth noting that the increase had a clear protagonist and it was the agricultural sector, which registered an increase of 4.54%monthly, driven by products such as Pepita fruits (+14.78%), citrus (+20.46%) and coffee (+11.7%). These three items, by themselves, contributed more than one percentage point to the total result of the IPP, making clear the weight that the food basket still has within the national cost structure.
In contrast, mining fell -2.89% and the manufacturing industry -0.14%, dragged by lower prices of crude oil, coal and sugar. But although the decrease in these sectors partially relieves the general average, agricultural rebound is an advanced indicator of possible pressures on the final prices to the consumer, especially in the food component.
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The DANE also stressed that final consumer goods rose 1.56%, while capital goods retreated -0.99%, suggesting that the pressure is concentrated in the products that end at the household table, rather than in industrial supplies.
Disinflation brake
With that panorama in production prices, analysts do not see space for an additional descent from the CPI. On the contrary, they expect a slight acceleration in September, after inflation was located at 5.1% per year.
The September IPC data will be important for the decisions of the Bank of the Republic.
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For example, Bancolombia estimates that monthly inflation would be 0.29%, which would carry the variation Annual to 5.14%, that is, four basic points above the previous month. Itaú, on the other hand, projects an increase of 0.34% monthly, which would raise the annual rate to 5.2%, and although the change seems small, the relevant thing is that it marks a reversal of the descending trend that came since the beginning of 2024.
“The environment remains characterized by risks. Food, in particular, will be the focus of attention in September again,” Bancolombia explained in their report, noting that their high frequency indicators anticipate food inflation of 0.60% monthly.
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Similarly, the price monitor data of the same bank support that forecast and argue that during the past month, animal proteins, especially beef (+0.79%) and birds (+0.67%), had notable increases. They also recorded fruits such as oranges (+7.7%) and blackberries (+1.9%), while onion prices and potatoes fell slightly.
“The perishable shows a moderation, but processed foods are still upward, with a variation of 0.4% monthly. Together, food inflation would reach 0.47% monthly and 6.48% per year,” the report said.
The September IPC data will be important for the decisions of the Bank of the Republic.
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Itaú, meanwhile, warns that in addition to food, housing and public services sectors They are also pressing the index, highlighting that “we hope that the total CPI will increase 0.34% monthly, driven by energy prices, gas and leases, while the IPC without food would be 0.34% and 5.21% annual.”
In that context, the girl’s climatic phenomenon appears as a new risk factor, since the forecasts point to an increase in rains between October and December, which could affect perishable crops and maintain high agricultural prices at the end of the year.
The Issuer’s alerts
Finally, the most recent minutes of the Bank of the Republic, published on October 3, confirm that the monetary authority shares these concerns, since its board of directors decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate by 9.25%, With four votes in favor, two for a reduction of 50 basic points and one for a decrease of 25 points.
In their analysis, the directors stressed that total inflation has remained stagnant around 5% for 2025, and that basic inflation, without food or regulated, has been six% for six months; So this behavior, the bank warns, indicates that the disinflation process has stopped and that its convergence towards the 3% goal will be slower than expected.
The September IPC data will be important for the decisions of the Bank of the Republic.
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The Board also warned about several risks that could maintain high inflation for longer. Among them, a possible high increase in the minimum wage by 2026, which would have direct effects on the indexing of contracts, leases and service rates. In addition, the growing fiscal deficit could boost domestic demand and limit the margin of monetary policy maneuver.
Another factor that worries the emitter is the structural weakness of the energy supply, which could generate new clashes in regulated prices and although electrical rates fell in September, the entity recognizes that the sustainability of the system faces pressures for costs and capacity.
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In terms of expectations, the bank warned that market analysts have already reviewed their inflation projections and wait for 5% by 2025 and 4% by 2026, above the long -term objective of 3%, concluding that “the forward disinflation process is uncertain, as it depends on Good measure that food and energy shocks are diluted, which is difficult to forecast. ”
In this way it can be concluded that inflation has not been defeated and that food, energy and weather continue to mark the pulse of the cost of living in the country. While the background trend is still stability, the data that will be known on Tuesday could confirm that deflation lost strength and that the path to the 3% goal will still be long.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
