The inflation for the first half of February it could be located at 7.8%, in its annual record, estimated economists from banking institutions and brokerage firms surveyed by Citibanamex.
This projection incorporates the possibility that the National consumer price index (INPC) will register a fortnightly variation of 0.34 percent.
If these forecasts are confirmed in the data that will be released on February 24, by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), inflation will be below that observed during January, when it reached a fluctuation of 7.93% per year.
Regarding core inflation, which better reflects the medium and long-term trend of the INPC because it only contains the prices of goods and services that are not affected by volatility, it will be located at 8.41%, which is slightly ilower than January recordwhen it reached 8.46 percent.
This indicator is particularly relevant for the members of the Governing Board, since, as Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath has explained, they are the prices most susceptible to monetary policy actions.
Derived from this forecast, the experts surveyed by Citibanamex forecast that by the end of this year, inflation will reach a variation of 5.20%, an estimate that incorporates an increase from the 5.20% that their consensus calculated in the survey last year. 15 days.
Rate will end at 11.25%, but there are those who expect it at 12%
With this inflation outlook, they anticipate that the Banco de México Governing Board will promote a new increase in the funding rate interbank at its meeting scheduled for March 30.
Thus, 31 of the 32 participants in the expectations survey estimated that an increase of 25 basis points would come, leaving the rate at 11.25 percent.
In fact, the experts surveyed by Citibanamex project today that the monetary policy rate will end the year at 11.25 percent.
In the detail of the information, it can be seen that one of the respondents anticipates that the terminal rate of the upward cycle will remain at 12%, it is about Scotiabank and two more groups expect it to remain at 11.75%, these are Natixis and Multiva.
In all three cases, they estimate that the rate will remain unchanged at that level throughout the year.
GDP at 1%
The expected average for this year’s GDP is 1%, with a range of estimates that goes from a contraction of 1%, as estimated by Grupo Bursametrica, and the extreme of 1.7% anticipated by Masari Casa de Bolsa.
