Economist José Guerra estimated that economic growth for 2025 will be between 3% and 4%. Said growth, he said, is “basically driven by oil activity” which has increased 15% in the first nine months of the year, based on data provided by the Maduro administration to OPEC and secondary sources. The BCV, the official entity with jurisdiction to report on the behavior of inflation, has not reported this data since October 2024
The economist and former director of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) José Guerra estimates that inflation could reach 500% by the end of the year if the pace of increase of the dollar against the bolivar continues, combined with other economic factors.
The inflation rate could be between 420% and 500%, Guerra said in a video published on his social networks, while stating that “if the dollar continues to increase at a rate between 0.60% and 0.90% daily, we are clearly going to have the danger of a new hyperinflationary process. Not at the levels between 2017 and 2021, but a little lower.
The BCV, the official entity with jurisdiction to report on the behavior of inflation, has not reported this data since October 2024, when it closed at 4%.
The economist explained that although the year 2025 started “with good forecasts”, there were factors such as the elimination of Chevron’s license and its restoration, devaluation, inflation and the political climate played negatively “for there to be a sustained recovery of the economy.”
Guerra estimated that economic growth for 2025 will be between 3% and 4%. Said growth, he said, is “basically driven by oil activity” which has increased 15% in the first nine months of the year, based on data provided by the Maduro administration to OPEC and secondary sources.
*Read also: Payment of bonus to special payrolls equivalent to $112 dollars begins
Furthermore, he said that there is no way to verify the figures given by the vice president Delcy Rodríguez in recent days on GDP growth, consumption or banking activity, due to a “statistical obscurantism” due to the lack of publication of official data by the BCV.
In terms of economic activity, indicated the former director of the BCV, «we are talking about a contribution of 4% to the GDP. On that side there is growth, but we do not know what is happening in key sectors such as construction, commerce, because there are no figures.
He said that the industrial sector is stagnant, as is construction, although he did not rule out that the commerce sector does experience some growth.
In his opinion, it is not possible for the country to experience growth or economic stability “if the underlying political problem that has to do with the 2024 elections is resolved, and for there to be a peaceful, constitutional and orderly transition that allows growth, generating income, reducing inflation and for Venezuelans to live better.”
On the other hand, he highlighted that Pdvsa has been turning to the Central Bank for financing and currently the debt amounts to 4.2 billion dollars.
«The Central Bank is financing the fiscal deficit through PDVSA by 5%. “That is net creation of money that goes to the market to generate inflationary pressures, that is, a fiscal deficit that is being financed with monetary emission,” he asserted.
*Journalism in Venezuela is carried out in a hostile environment for the press with dozens of legal instruments in place to punish the word, especially the laws “against hate”, “against fascism” and “against the blockade.” This content was written taking into consideration the threats and limits that, consequently, have been imposed on the dissemination of information from within the country.
Post Views: 38
