Despite its sales record, Buen Fin 2024 would not have been a disruptive factor for the global consumption of Mexican families.
This is shown by the figures of the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) of the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (Inegi) published this Tuesday, which in their base scenario anticipate a stagnation of family spending.
According to the IOCP seasonally adjusted, in October private consumption It contracted 0.1% compared to the previous month and in November it had zero variation.
These movements mean that the variable had an interannual growth of 1.9% in October and 1.5% in November.
The monthly stagnation of consumption would thus contribute to the annual slowdown of the variable, which in November would have had its weakest performance since February 2021, when it was still suffering the effects of Covid-19 and fell at a rate of 5.4 percent.
The IOCP is an experimental statistic from Inegi that provides a timely econometric estimate of the evolution of the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP).
Thus, while the IMCP is released approximately nine weeks after the reference month, the IOCP offers a first estimate—with a greater margin of statistical error—just two weeks after the end of the reference month,” says Inegi.
Good End 2024 is due
On the weekend the Ministry of Economy revealed that Buen Fin 2024, carried out from November 22 to 25, produced sales of 173.8 billion pesos, a figure that was 15.5% higher in nominal terms than the sales amount of Buen Fin 2023.
However, in a broader perspective, the offer campaign seems to have had an effect of concentrating sales on the weekend in which it was carried out, rather than boosting commercial activity for the month of November as a whole. .
According to figures from the National Association of Self-Service Stores (ANTAD) its associates’ Buen Fin sales grew 9.8% nominally, however, the stores’ comparable sales throughout the month rose only half, 4.9%, also in nominal terms.
Considering that November inflation was 4.55%, this would leave the real growth of ANTAD sales at less than 0.5% annually.
Return to stagnation
Throughout 2024, the trajectory of private consumption—which is the most important component of aggregate demand and the one with the greatest contribution to GDP on the spending side—has been of certain dynamism during the first quarter of the year, deceleration in the second and a recovery in the third.
According to the latest seasonally adjusted series of the IMCP (as of September), quarterly growth in the first quarter of the year was 0.7%, while in the second it was reduced to 0.3% and in the third there was a rebound to 0.9 percent .
However, the IOCP forecasts for October and November, specifically, speak of a new brake on consumptionsince the 0.1% drop and the zero variation expected for both periods, respectively, are added to the 0.3% decrease observed in September.
Cumulative deceleration
Cumulatively, until September, private consumption had grown 3.7%, compared to the 4.2% increase in the first nine months of 2023.
The lower dynamism is part of lower growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which in the third quarter of the year grew 1.8% year-on-year, compared to the 3.6% increase in the same period of 2023.
