Despite a slight increase in confidence in October, Brazilian industry has accumulated 10 consecutive months of pessimism, revealed the Industrial Business Confidence Index (Icei), released this Monday (13) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). This month, the indicator rose 1 point, reaching 47.2 points.
Despite the progress, the result still remains below the 50-point line, which separates confidence from lack of confidence. Since January, the indicator has been below this level.
In a statement, CNI’s Economic Analysis manager, Marcelo Azevedo, highlighted that it is still too early to talk about a reversal of the situation.
“The end of the year is usually more favorable for the industry and this is usually reflected in expectations. It is possible that Icei will improve, but not that this lack of confidence that has been present since the beginning of the year will be reversed”, he stated.
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Components
Both components of the index improved in October. The Current Conditions Index rose 1.3 points, from 41.9 points to 43.2 points. The increase reflects a less negative perception among businesspeople regarding the situation of companies and the Brazilian economy. Even so, the indicator remains well below 50 points, which reveals that, for the majority of industrial companies, current conditions are still worse than they were 6 months ago.
The Expectations Index, which measures prospects for the next 6 months, advanced 2.9 points and reached 49.1 points, the third consecutive increase. The data shows that, although expectations remain negative, pessimism has been gradually decreasing.
The improvement is mainly driven by less unfavorable projections for the economy and a more optimistic view of the performance of the companies themselves.
Monthly survey conducted by CNI, Icei assesses the confidence of businesspeople in Brazilian industry. The survey interviewed 1,164 industrial companies across the country between October 1st and 7th. Of this total, 458 are small, 444 are medium-sized and 262 are large industries.
