The Industry Confidence Index (ICI), calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Economics, of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV/IBRE), dropped 0.8 points in September and reached 99.5 points, but in the quarterly moving averages, the fall was 0.6 point. The indicator also showed that, in September, 11 of the 19 industrial segments monitored by the survey registered a retraction.
According to figures released today (28), in Rio de Janeiro, by IBRE, the Current Situation Index (ISA) dropped 1.9 points, to 100.9 points. The Expectations Index (IE) changed by 0.1 point, reaching 98 points and remained relatively stable.
In the assessments that are part of the ISA, the perception of entrepreneurs in relation to the current business situation dropped 4.1 points to 97.6 points, which represented a worsening and was the one that most negatively influenced the result in the month. It is the lowest level since March, when it stood at 91.9 points.
The researchers consider that the result “seems to be also linked to a perception of a drop in demand”. The indicator that measures the level of demand dropped from 1.7 points to 101.5 points. However, the indicator that measures the level of inventories changed by 0.3 point, remained stable and remained with a favorable result below 100 points.
negative trajectory
For the third consecutive month, production in the next three months maintains a negative trajectory among expectations. In September, there was a drop of one point to 91.1 points. This is the lowest level since March. That month it was at 90.3 points.
Despite this, for the next six months, the indicator that measures business trends shows recovery for the second month, this time by 1.7 points, rising to 98.5 points and approaching the levels observed in the last quarter of 2021.
There was also a drop in the Capacity Utilization Level of Industry, which, in September, dropped 1.4 points, returning to the level observed in May 2022, when it stood at 80.8%.
Influence
For economist Stéfano Pacini, from FGV/IBRE, the decline in industrial confidence in September was influenced by a perception by businessmen of a drop in demand for industrial products of all categories of use, except for non-consumer goods. durable. “This result negatively affects the assessment of the current situation of the business, despite a decompression in costs with the reduction of oil and energy prices”, he explained.
In terms of perspectives, the economist pointed to pessimism regarding the increase in production for the coming months, possibly related to the continued slowdown in economic activity and difficulties in the supply of some inputs. “The scenario improves a little in the six-month horizon, but caution is necessary, considering that the more restrictive monetary policy should contain investments in the coming months”, he concluded.
