The Industrial Business Confidence Index (Icei) fell 0.3 points in February, going from 48.5 to 48.2 points, according to a survey released this Thursday (12) by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). With the result, the sector completes 14 consecutive months below the 50-point line, which separates confidence from lack of confidence.
In January, the indicator had risen 0.5 points, approaching the neutrality level. The new decline occurs after the Central Bank set the basic interest rate, the Selic, at 15% per year, a level that keeps Brazil among the countries with the highest real interest rates in the world.
For CNI, the high interest rate environment impacts both credit and businesspeople’s expectations. “The high level of interest rates affects industrial activity in a few ways. One of them is by making credit more expensive, both for businesspeople and consumers. This slows down economic activity”, states, in a note, Larissa Nocko, policy and industry specialist at the entity.
According to her, the restrictive monetary policy also influences projections for the coming months. “Faced with a tighter monetary policy, businesspeople tend to project a weakening of the economy down the road, impacting their demand projections,” he adds.
Current conditions and expectations
Both components of the ICEI recorded a drop in February. The Current Conditions Index fell 0.2 points, to 43.8 points, indicating that industrialists assess that both the Brazilian economy and businesses themselves are worse than they were six months ago.
The worsening was mainly driven by a more negative perception of the situation of the companies themselves, despite a slight improvement in the assessment of the general economic scenario.
The Expectations Index fell from 50.7 to 50.4 points. Although it remains above the 50-point dividing line, which indicates positive prospects for the next six months, there was a deterioration in company performance projections. The worsening, highlights the CNI, occurs even with an improvement in expectations regarding the economy for the same period.
The survey interviewed 1,103 companies between February 2nd and 6th, 2026. Of this total, 454 are small, 400 medium-sized and 249 large industries.
