Industrial production fell for the second consecutive month, and in September it fell by 0.7%. In comparison with the same month last year, there was an increase of 0.4%, but in the year the decline is 1.1% and in the 12 months of 2.3%. The data are from the Monthly Industrial Survey (PIM) released today (1) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The survey showed that 21 of the 26 industrial branches surveyed showed a decline. According to the IBGE, with these numbers, the sector is 2.4% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020 and 18.7% below the record level reached in May 2011.
For the research manager, André Macedo, it is possible to say that there is a reduction in the pace of industrial production. “This is clearly evident not only in these 2 consecutive months of decline, but also in the higher frequency of negative rates in the last 4 months, with three negative variations. With these latest results and a widespread profile of a decline in production in September 2022, we understand that there has been a loss in the pace of production in recent months,” he explained.
Among the activities, the greatest negative influence occurred in the food products industry (2.9%), followed by metallurgy (7.6%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.6%). There were also decreases in beverages (4.6%) and wood products (8.8%).
The researcher added that food products had 2 consecutive months with a fall in production, adding a decline of 6.1%. Macedo pondered that in the 3 months prior to the two setbacks, activity recorded an accumulated advance of 6.7%. “Products derived from soy, sugar and poultry meat are important items in understanding this fall in the food sector in September,” he said.
Metallurgy
The metallurgy sector had the most intense fall in September since January 2021, when it dropped 9.9%. However, the researcher stressed that it is important to remember that the segment has been showing positive results for 2 months, accumulating 2.4% in this period. “The coke, petroleum products and biofuels sector accumulates a reduction of 6.9% in 2 consecutive months of loss and was pressured, this month, by petroleum and alcohol derivatives”, he said.
Among the five activities that increased from August to September, mining and quarrying (1.8%) and machinery and equipment (2.2%) represented the main impacts in September, with the first eliminating part of the decrease of 3.1% registered in August and the other registering the second consecutive month of expansion in production, accumulating a 15.3% gain in this period.
The widespread profile of a fall in production, with an advance in the production pace in just five, according to the analyst, had not been observed since January of this year. At that time, only four industrial segments grew. Among the activities with positive results, the mining and quarrying sector (1.8%) had the greatest favorable impact. The highlight was the advances in the extraction of crude oil, natural gas and iron ores. “Among the major economic categories, all showed a decline in production in September,” he said.
The rise of 0.4% in the industrial sector compared to September last year was influenced by the positive results in two of the four major economic categories and in 12 of the 26 surveyed sectors. The main positive impact came from the segment of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, with an increase of 20.3%.
“The segment of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies is the one that exerts the most positive pressure and keeps the total industrial sector in the field of growth. It is worth noting the influence of the basis of comparison, since this activity dropped 8.8% in September last year. This helps to explain the magnitude of expansion observed this month”, he explained, citing automobiles, auto parts and trucks as the products that positively impacted the most prominent items in the segment.
Macedo also said that it is also necessary to consider the basis of comparison to understand the growth of 0.4% of the total of the industry, to the extent that in September of last year the industrial sector retreated 4.1%.
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According to the IBGE, since the 1970s, PIM Brasil has produced short-term indicators related to the behavior of the real product of the extractive and manufacturing industries, but as of May 2014, the new series of monthly indexes of the industrial production, after a reformulation to update the sample of activities, products and informants, in addition to developing a new weighting structure for the indices based on more recent industrial statistics.
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