Benefiting from the economic recovery and inflation, which increases the collection of the Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS), the states are able to borrow more easily. In 2022, 21 states received grades A and B from the National Treasury and are authorized to contract credit operations guaranteed by the Union, when the federal government covers any losses or defaults.
The information is contained in the Finance Bulletin of Subnational Entities, released today (29) by the National Treasury. Last year, 20 states had received grades A and B from Capacity to Pay (Capag).
In 2022, Goiás and Tocantins rose from grade C to B. On the other hand, Maranhão dropped from grade B to C and is no longer eligible to receive credit operations with the Union’s guarantee. In all, six states cannot borrow with Union guarantees. In addition to Maranhão, the states of Amapá (grade C), Minas Gerais (grade D), Rio de Janeiro (grade C), Rio Grande do Norte (grade C) and Rio Grande do Sul (grade D).
maximum grades
In 2022, seven states received the maximum grade A, which indicates the best fiscal situation, against five in 2021. Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso, Paraíba, Rondônia and Roraima are in this situation, which had also received the maximum grade in 2021 This year, they won the company of Mato Grosso do Sul and Pará.
Using the National Treasury methodology, Capag assesses the fiscal situation of states and municipalities that want to take out new loans with a Union guarantee, in order to verify whether a new debt represents a credit risk for the National Treasury. The calculation is made up of three indicators: indebtedness, current savings and liquidity ratio.
Based on these indicators, the Treasury grants grades from A to D to the states, with a requirement to receive a guarantee from the Union that the entity has a calculated payment capacity and is classified as A or B.
Capitals and other municipalities
The number of state capitals rated A or B also improved in the year, rising from 18 in 2021 to 22 in 2022. Of these, 14 received the maximum A rating, against 11 in the previous year. They are: Aracaju, Belém, Boa Vista, Florianópolis, João Pessoa, Macapá, Maceió, Manaus, Palmas, Porto Alegre, Porto Velho, Rio Branco, São Luís and Vitória.
Among the capitals, only the municipalities of Campo Grande (grade C), Cuiabá (Capag suspended), Fortaleza (grade C) and Natal (grade C) were ineligible to receive guarantees in credit operations. All capitals with grade C in Capag have a current savings indicator above 95%, indicative of a high commitment of their current revenues with current expenses. As for liquidity, Natal has financial obligations greater than its gross cash holdings.
Across the country, the number of municipalities with grades A and B rose. In 2022, 3,329 municipalities are able to take loans guaranteed by the Union, against 2,535 last year.
