By 2050, Brazil needs to increase national bean production by 44% to meet market demand. That means 1.5 million more a year. This is what shows research developed by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) and the University of São Paulo.
But, to make this task more difficult, producers will have to face an increase in temperature of up to 2.8ºC in the next two decades, predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations.
The Midwest region and the states of Minas Gerais and Bahia may be the most affected areas, and may even have to change the planting calendar.
According to Alexandre Bryan, a researcher at Embrapa, the concentration of carbon dioxide harms, especially, the reproductive phase of the crop, preventing the formation of pods and bean grains. Therefore, the tendency is to drop productivity in the coming years. But producers can adapt to the new planting conditions by choosing more resistant grains. “Black beans have a greater tolerance to adverse situations. So, I mean, we know that black beans stand out in some conditions. So, there is a difference between the types of beans. The whole issue is that the market is restricted. Beans black, basically, is consumed in Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro and, in the rest of Brazil, it is carioca and this is a problem”.
Alexandre Bryan also points out that the drop in productivity and increase in demand is a subject that must go through public policies, both in relation to investment in research for the generation of more adapted plants, and in relation to family farming. “So, it’s interesting to have a public policy for family farming, in which it can produce beans together with other crops, or in rotation with other crops, also having a forest in the middle, having planning that has diversity. Because if you have diversity is greater, it is also more sustainable. We know that diversity decreases, it is a way to minimize the impact of climate change.”
Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) show that, today, the annual production of beans in the country is R$ 12 billion per year, reaching 2.8 million tons.
