Security cooperation
In terms of security there will be collaboration, as long as there is respect for the sovereignty of Mexicoconsider the experts consulted.
“Both Mexico and the United States are aware that they have to cooperate to combat drug trafficking groups in Mexico because this affects both countries. It is a shared problem and the best alternative is to cooperate,” adds Rafael Velázquez.
For the United States, cartels are a target because they are responsible for the production of fentanyl, a drug is causing the death of more than 70,000 Americans each year.
“People have wanted it for years (to designate the cartels as terrorists). “Mexico probably doesn’t want that,” Trump acknowledged during the signing of the executive order at the White House.
The executive order signed by Trump states that the cartels functionally control, through a campaign of murder, terror, rape and brute force, almost all illegal trafficking across the southern border of the United States.
“In certain parts of Mexico, they function as quasi-governmental entities, controlling almost every aspect of society.”
Executive Order on cartels signed by US President Donald Trump.
In the document, it is noted that the activities of the cartels threaten the security of the American people, “the security of the United States and the stability of the international order in the Western Hemisphere.”
Financial surveillance
The designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations carries financial consequences.
“The United States Government has the power to adopt legal provisions that will allow it to monitor financial transactions. This in terms of security for Mexico implies that all transactions can be passed through filters to detect money laundering and the carrying out of illicit activities,” says Armando Rodríguez, security, intelligence and media consultant.
“This will leave some sectors more vulnerable depending on the main interest defined by the US authorities. For example, if combating drug trafficking is their priority in the face of the crisis due to fentanyl consumption, pharmaceutical and transportation sectors will be in the spotlight“he adds.
For Rodríguez, Trump’s decision to designate the cartels as foreign terrorist organizations is one more way to pressure Mexico so that our country fights the cartels in a more efficient way.
“What we are going to see in the coming months is strong pressure from the United States government for Mexico to be more effective in stopping the drug cartels, to prevent the transfer of drugs to the United States. If Mexico does not comply, then in that case I do see greater pressure and the possibility that Trump will declare drug trafficking groups as terrorists and use other means to combat them,” says the UABC professor.
Designating cartels as terrorist groups is not a new idea. In 2011 and 2019 it was raised due to the level of violence they generate, but doing so would also have political and economic implications.
“They are economic sanctions, also of an immigration nature, that is, people from organizations declared as terrorists cannot enter North American territory, nor can they no American can carry out economic activities or commercial with these organizations. It is a media sanction as such, people related to these organizations can be deported, but they do not imply an armed intervention,” explains security specialist, David Saucedo.
However, there will be risks if the United States conducts clandestine operations in Mexico through technological resources to identify the main criminal actors, e.g. with satellite surveillance and use of drones; Likewise, the possibility that there are selective incursions by parts of the US Army in Mexican territory.
“These types of measures would comprehensively affect the strategy that the Mexican Government is currently implementing. On the one hand, it would be the arrest of leaders and the disruption of criminal activities and would increase violence between criminal groups, as well as the violence of these groups towards the security forces,” says Rodríguez.
The designation of terrorist organizations still must meet several requirements and a path that is emerging for several months in the United States Congress.
While the executive orders begin to be applied, President Sheinbaum’s government seeks to hold a meeting with President Donald Trump’s team, with which, the Morenista trusts, agreements will be reached.
