The approval of the General Budget of the Nation (PGN) by 2026 for $ 546 billion seemed, in principle, a relief for the government, which managed to overcome the ghost that their accounts came out by decree. However, the true dispute as soon as it begins and beyond the tax reform as a source of financing, new debates They begin to open in the Senate and Chamber, in the need to stop the country’s indebtedness.
The idea, raised by Senator Angélica Lozano, is clear and argues that if the Law on Financing shipwrecked, the risk is that the Government choose to supply resources with debt, at high rates and with harmful effects for fiscal sustainability; as is happening in the current validity, where the fiscal crisis is the bread of each day.
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Therefore, he warned that his bet will be to introduce an article that avoids replacing failure of new taxes with more credits and that it is assumed that it is silver with which it is not counted and must translate into the cut of the expense that is so requested.
“There is danger, risk, that when sinking, refusing the tax reform now for $ 16 billion, the government says, ok, I will replace them with another source in the financial plan, and that source is called debt, new debt, new credits with very expensive interests such as drop by drop. There we will be to prevent it,” he said.
The plenary debate for the PGN 2026 promises a lot of movement.
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This proposal, which was presented during the debate in the joint economic commissions, but in the end it was left as a proof to be debated in the plenaries, establishes that the income of the Nation’s general budget for the fiscal validity of 2026, without considering a law of Financing are estimated at five hundred thirty billion pesos ($ 530 billion).
“The additional amount, up to sixteen billions of pesos ($ 16 billion), provided for in this bill, will be conditioned to the approval of the respective Financing Law. If not approved, the income may not exceed the five hundred thirty billion pesos ($ 530 billion),” says the article in question.
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A partial relief
It should be remembered that the budget approved with $ 10 billion cut was interpreted by some sectors as a triumph of the Executive, by maintaining the initiative standing, and by others as a brake on “Excess fiscal optimism” that brought the original proposal of $ 557 billion.
Meanwhile, Lozano, in his balance, did not hide that the amount remains inflated, highlighting that “it remains a budget of $ 547 billion that does not exist and makes the government maintain the expectation and the idea of approveing a new tax reform, which is inconvenient, that the stick is not for spoons and that we will be there to avoid”.
The plenary debate for the PGN 2026 promises a lot of movement.
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However, the legislator celebrated that the procedure has come out by law and not by decreewhich described as a respite for institutionality; while stressed that Congress managed to eliminate articles that granted excessive powers to the Executive and items that could become a focus of discretion.
“For example, there was an article left in the Ministry of Finance six billion pesos that was not known for what it was. It was called as other transfers prior concept. We eliminated it and from there comes the jam,” he said.
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But the discussion is not exhausted in the adjustment of the accounts and senators such as Ciro Ramírez, of the Democratic Center, have been emphatic in which they supported the budget to prevent the country from being left without law, But they anticipated that they will not give their vote to the tax.
“We do not agree with the amount and we have been saying it, but I think it is worse for the country to pass this budget by decree. That is why we will accompany this alternative proposal of the representative Olga … the political opposition does not agree and we will vote negative the tax reform,” he said.
The plenary debate for the PGN 2026 promises a lot of movement.
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That same line was backed by the conservative senator and presidential candidate Efraín Cepeda, who not only celebrated that the general provisions that gave “omnivorous” powers to the government were eliminated, but reiterated that there will be no room for new levies and therefore, he announced that the tax will not have major support.
“That budget is definanced in the twenty -six tributary or sixteen billion today, because there will be no tax or twenty -six, either sixteen, neither ten, nor five, nor four, nor three, nor two. There will be no tax reform and the government will have to make the corresponding cuts,” he said.
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The technical vision
From the Academy, the Fiscal Observatory of the Javeriana University called on caution and, specifically, Mauricio Salazar, its director, explained that what is approved so far is just the first debate, and that only until October 20 It will be known if the $ 10 billion cut is maintained, so there is still a lot of cloth to cut.
“What we have today is just a first approved debate. There are still three more debates and only until October 20 we will know if that 10 billion cut is maintained. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance already has to start thinking about a new text for the Financing Law,” he explained.
The plenary debate for the PGN 2026 promises a lot of movement.
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The expert added that if the budget fails to consolidate with the cut in the debates remaining, the government could choose to issue it by decree with the initial amount of $ 557 billion and that in that scenario, the need for a tax reform would be $ 26.3 billion again, reopening an even greater fiscal hole.
In addition, Salazar identified critical fronts such as taxes on hydrocarbons, liquors and tobacco, which already generate political tensions, and consumer tax, which according to him has a technical error of origin; arguing that “an instrument that was for income from the Nation was used to modify territorial income. That would not endure a constitutionality analysis.”
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Thus, for now the big difference compared to previous years is that Congress not only cut $ 10 billion to the budget, but now prepares to shield the nation against excessive indebtedness; So you will have to expect what the move from the house of Nariño, where They have made it clear that they are not afraid that this project will go again by decree if you do not reach consensus.
October 20 will be the key date. Until then, the Executive will have to measure his margin of maneuver to convince a divided Congress, which already made it clear that he does not want more taxes or more debt; While in the midst of that pulse, the credibility of fiscal policy will be at stake.
Daniel Hernández Naranjo
Portfolio journalist
