April could be the month in which a break in the inflation figures is marked. The latest Financial Opinion Survey (EOF), prepared by Fedesarrollo and the Colombian Stock Exchange, showed how the main market analysts expect this to be the month in which inflation finally subsides, and also that the last rise in Interest rates.
In the bulletin published yesterday, it is detailed how analysts expect the intervention rate to remain at 13.0% after the meeting of the Board of Directors of Banco de la República scheduled for April 28, in which policy decisions will be made. monetary policy, and that this indicator remains at that level at least until July.
(Also read: The Banco de la República raised interest rates to 13%.)
This, bearing in mind that the market also expects April to be the month in which inflation finally drops, after nearly two years in which the indicator has risen.
In what has to do with the forecast for the end of the yearthe data is expected to be located at 9.12%above the estimate of 9.0% in the last edition of the survey.
(Also read: Annual inflation for March 2023 in Colombia was 13.34%.)
According to the EOFafter the data of 13.34% that registered the annual variation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March, Analysts believe that inflation will be at 12.96%, in a range between 12.9% and 13.0%.
Looking at the end of the year, market expectations suggest that by December 2023 inflation will be at 9.12%, which implies an increase compared to the forecasts made in the previous edition of the EOF (9.0%).
Hand in hand with this reduction in the price indicator, experts anticipate that in the second half of the year the interest rate of the Bank of the Republic also decrease and stand at 11% at the end of the year, while by 2024 they project it to drop to 9.0%.
(Further: Analysts project that inflation in 2023 will reach 9.49%).
Regarding growth forecasts for 2023, in the April survey the GDP forecast was in a range between 0.7% and 1.2%, with 1.0% as the average response, while for next year the projection of the GDP stood at 2.3%, with a range between 1.8% and 2.7%.
In addition, the survey revealed that expectations for growth in the first quarter of 2023 were in a range between 2.0% and 2.5%, with 2.1% as the average response, while in the March edition of the survey was at 2.0%.
On the other hand, the growth forecast for the second quarter of 2023 was 0.9%
(It may interest you: In March, energy reached the highest price in a year).
The EOF also revealed that for the month, Analysts believe that the exchange rate will be in a range between $4,445 and $4,580, with $4,500 on averageand that by the end of the year it will be at $4,690, which shows a decrease compared to the forecast of the previous month.
The report also details that in this edition of the survey, sociopolitical conditions were shown to be the most relevant aspect when investing, being chosen by 44.4% of analysts.
LAURA LUCIA BECERRA ELEJALDE
Journalist Portfolio
