2022 will be remembered as a year of economic transition. The GDP could close around 8%, the labor market recovered, but on the other hand inflation and consequently interest rates rose to levels that had not been seen for two decades.
(Read: This is how overtime, night and holidays remained with a minimum of 2023).
This is the prelude to 2023, a year in which, on the contrary, a major collapse is expected. Although some international organizations they expect an indicator close to 2%, the Government itself has spoken of a forecast of 1.3%while the monetary authority, the Banco de la República, expects it to expand just 0.5%.
This, without neglecting the complications that bring less economic dynamics on employmentTherefore, several analysts consider that in 2023 the indicator could be pushed upwards again, which in its last figure, that of October, was in single digits, at 9.7%.
The OECD, for example, outlined in its latest report for Colombia that “consumption and investment will remain subdued, while households and businesses face high inflation and interest rates and uncertainty about the economic outlook and economic policy”. A complex combination in uncertain times.
(Also: Petro’s proposal to recover purchasing power).
This is because Colombia is no stranger to the international scene, and it is the global economy that is setting the compass, in which inflation and high interest rates have been the protagonists in recent months and they will stand on high ground throughout the coming year.
The annual variation of the consumer price index (CPI) reached 12.53% in November 2022and due to the rise in prices, the Issuer has been increasing the reference interest rate, to the point that last week the reference interest rate was increased to 12%.
The manager of the central bank, Leonardo Villar, highlighted that “inflation expectations continue to be above the target at all horizons”, and that in the case of the Banco de la República expectations survey carried out in December, Total inflation would be 7.5% and inflation without food would be 7.0% at the end of 2023.
Despite this, the Government hopes that next year the blow will not be so abrupt, despite not having many support factors in the macroeconomic scenario. The Minister of Finance has stressed that by 2023 a significant correction in inflation in Colombia is expectedand it is also expected that the Banco de la República’s intervention rate will begin to fall.
(See: Minimum wage: products and services that would rise in price).
Thus, next year will be marked by a complex scenario, with an economy growing little, and prices still high.
BRIEFCASE
