The change in the forecast for Mexico was in tune with the downward adjustments for the global economy for 2023 due to the pressures of the war in Ukraine, the high prices of energy and food and the high interest rates, warning that the situation could worsen significantly next year.
The outlook for global GDP for next year has been adjusted to 2.7%, compared with a forecast of 2.9% in July, as higher interest rates slow down the US economy and housing sector.
The Fund reported that analyzes for its report show a third of global GDP is likely to contract next year, marking a gloomy start to the first annual face-to-face meetings of the IMF and World Bank in three years.
“The three largest economies, the United States, China and the euro zone, will remain in the doldrums,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a statement. “In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.”
Adjustment for Latin America
Meanwhile, the IMF raised its forecasts for economic growth in 2022 for Latin America and the Caribbean, while lowering its expansion projection for 2023 due to changes in commodity prices and external financing conditions.
The IMF raised its growth outlook for this year to 3.5%, from 3.0% in its July estimate.
The Fund forecasts that consumer prices will end the year with a rise of 14.6% in the region, with a projection that the inflation rate will slow down to 9.5% next year.
This year’s regional forecast upgrade is based on “stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2022 thanks to favorable commodity prices, still-favorable external financing conditions, and the normalization of activities in the intensive,” the agency said in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook report.
However, growth in the region is expected to slow in late 2022 and 2023 as partner country growth weakens, financial conditions tighten and commodity prices decline.
With information from Reuters.
