Sao Paulo. He International Monetary Fund (IMF) It kept its growth forecast for the Latin American economy stable at 2.5% for 2025, in its quarterly World Economic Outlook report, published this Friday.
Among the largest countries in the region, the IMF maintains its growth forecast of 2.2% for Brazil, raises that of Mexico by one tenth (1.4%) and expects a strong rebound in the Argentine economy (5.0%). after the 2024 recession.
The slowdown in Brazil’s economy will occur after having registered robust growth of 3.7% in 2024, according to new IMF calculations, which revise the forecast released last October by seven tenths upwards.
This strong growth last year of the South American giant, supported by domestic consumption, had an impact on inflation, which closed 2024 at 4.83%, slightly above the ceiling of the goal set by the Central Bank.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, speaking to reporters, stated that inflation is moderating faster in advanced economies than in emerging economies, and noted that Brazil “faced somewhat higher inflation.”
IMF sources recognized that the Fund’s main concern in relation to the Latin American economy is precisely the inflationary pressure in Brazil, something that led the Central Bank to raise interest rates to 12.25% to try to contain prices.
The IMF report raised the growth forecasts for Mexico’s economy by one tenth for 2025, to 1.4%, and kept unchanged the 2% for 2026.
In November, the agency renewed Mexico’s access to the Flexible Credit Line (LCF) of some 35 billion dollars given the solidity of its macroeconomic policies and its institutional public policy frameworks.
However, he indicated that in Mexico “economic activity is moderating, with a slowdown in private consumption and investment, and a decrease in employment growth.”
“Growth is expected to moderate further in 2025, reflecting the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus and a slowdown in the US economy,” the IMF added.
In relation to Argentina, the report foresees a challenging outlook in the short term, but with signs of recovery later. According to new projections, Argentina’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to fall by 2.8% in 2024, reflecting the persistent contraction of economic activity amid a complex macroeconomic context.
However, starting in 2025, the IMF foresees a significant rebound, with growth of 5.0% that would also be maintained in 2026, which represents an upward revision of three tenths for next year.
