The International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved two tenths of the projection of global economic growth by 2025reaching 3.2%, thanks to a lower impact of the tariff war than expected and the advance of investment in new technologies, according to its new World Economic Prospects report.
However, the organization’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchasindicated this Tuesday that although global growth seems stable, it also presents a certain fragility and added that “the good news is that the impact of the trade war is modest for the moment.”
After growing 3.3% in 2024, the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report now expects a global growth 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, in the latter case the same as predicted in its previous report from July.
United States and China
He IMF increases the growth of USA both for 2025, up to 2%, and for 2026, at 2.1%, while China -whose forecasts remain unchanged- will see its GDP grow by 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively.
The IMF improves the forecasts for the eurozone by two tenths for 2025, to 1.2%, largely thanks to the push of the Spanish economy, which once again receives an upward revision (four tenths in this report) and places its growth for the current year at 2.9%.
In April, when the American president, donald trumpannounced a historic increase in tariffs for almost all countries on the planet, the IMF expected a great drag on global economic flows, but after progressive rounds of negotiations, these barriers are now lower.
“However, the tariffs They are very far from falling to 2024 levels. The uncertainty in trade policy remains high and in the absence of clear, transparent and lasting agreements between partners, attention is beginning to move towards the impact on prices, investment and consumption,” the report indicates.
Endurance
The data indicates that global activity has proven more resilient than expected, thanks in part to flexible monetary policiesa private sector that has adapted, the relaxation of certain US tariffs and the rise of investment in artificial intelligence, especially in the United States and China.
- The IMF envisages a scenario in which the greater-than-expected benefits of AI increase global GDP by approximately 0.3 points in 2026, “with a more marked effect in the United States and China.”
Nevertheless, the Fund warns that challenges remain and if the promises of AI productivity improvements do not materialize “a drop in aggregate investment may be pronounced, given that investment in data centers and AI has contributed significantly to recent investment growth.”
“In summary, global growth It is not as bad as feared, but it is worse than anticipated a year ago and worse than we need. For this reason, we see risks that push (future forecasts) downward,” Gourichas added. EFE
